Having Internet Problems

Could not come at a better time. I'm having some internet connectivity issues and I'm not sure when it will be fixed.

As a side note, Obama by 14% in North Carolina and a very tight race in Indiana. It may be a double take for Obama. Bad news for Clinton.

LA-6 Special Election

In a stunning victory, Democrat Don Cazayoux defeated Republican Woody Jenkins to replace retired Republican Congressman Richard Baker. Cazayoux won the district 49% to 46%, this despite Republican ads, which tried to tie Cazayoux with Nancy Pelosi, Obama and Rev. Wright.

If anything, this Republican defeat is a sure sign of things to come this November.

The 6th Congressional district has remained Republican since 1975 with about a 7% lean Republican.

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama's response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I'm not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Is This an Attack Ad?

Now, I may support Senator Clinton, but at least you know my biases, having said that, I'm one of the most objective Clinton supporters you are likely to meet. Senator Obama is now accusing Clinton of running the first attack ad of the campaign season. While the ad does mention Obama, the ad is factually correct and displays specifics. Clinton was for a foreclosure moratorium (I support this), Obama was not. Clinton is for a gas tax holiday (I do not support this), Obama is not. This is simply stating a factual difference. If that is an attack ad, then I cannot imagine what I would see in the fall. Is the ad tough? Yes. Is it an attack ad? No. Can it be viewed that way? Obama thinks so.

Hillary Adds Pennsylvania Superdelegate

Since Pennsyvania Obama has a 8 to 4 advantage in announced superdelegates.

From PennLive:

Hillary Rodham Clinton will pick up the support of another influential superdelegate this morning when Bill George declares his support for the senator from New York.

George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, had been one of six remaining undeclared Pennsylvania superdelegates. [...]

With George’s support, Clinton extends her lead over fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama to 16-5 among Pennsylvania superdelegates.

Ron Paul Still Around

In this article, it talks about Ron Paul still gaining votes in primaries and mentions two interesting points: will he support McCain or will he run as an Independent?

Two quotations: “I’ll be very cautious about what I do,” he said, noting his effort to encourage his supporters to get involved with their local Republican committee. “If I just endorse somebody from another party and walk away, that probably wouldn’t go over too well.”

And, "But while keeping to the same mantra — “I have no plan, no intention to do so” — Paul is also not completely slamming the door shut on a third-party run. And, perhaps more worrisome for Republicans should they have a tight race with the eventual Democratic nominee, he’s also not ruling out supporting a third-party candidate."

Didn't want to make it seem like the Democrats had the only intriguing campaign.

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Membership

Democratic Convention Watch has a list of members on the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.

With the expected hearing on the FL and MI delegation plans on May 31, here is a look at the makeup of the committee and who supports who.

Co-Chairs - no endorsement
Alexis Herman (co-chair, Washington , D.C. )
James Roosevelt, Jr. (co-chair, Massachusetts )

Members - Clinton supporters (12)
Hartina Flournay (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Harold Ickes, Jr. (DC)
Alice Huffman (CA)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Members - Obama supporters (8)
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)
Everett Ward (NC)

Members - no known endorsement (8)
Donna Brazille (DC)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Gates ( NV)
Alice Germond (DC) - DNC Secretary
Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. (TX)
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)

Matt notes that Allan Katz is on Obama's Finance Committee and Ralph Dawson is one of the few New York superdelegates who have not endorsed Clinton. However, Dawson introduced the measure to strip FL and MI of their delegates.

There are 30 members, hence, 16 is a majority. If all of Clinton's supporters vote as a block, they will only need 4 more votes to secure their desired outcome.

Survey USA Shows Single Digit NC Race

Survey USA released its new North Carolina poll today, showing a close single digit race.

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

Obama's lead is down from the last poll, which showed him winning the state by 9 points.

Some interesting demographics.

Clinton wins whites by 31 points. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton now leads by 4 points. This suggest the recent Wright controversy may have had some effect. We will have to wait until next week to see if Obama's response gained him any points.

Note of caution, in Survey USA's PA polls, SUSA over-polled Clinton all the way up to their last poll where they under-polled Clinton. Is it possible the same is happening with Obama, except in reverse?

If the race in North Carolina ends in the single digits, and Clinton walks away with an Indiana win, this could make the race for the Democratic nomination wide open. Obama is widely expected to win North Carolina by huge margins, any sign of weakness in the Obama candidacy can not only sway voters, but swing superdelegates. Having said all that, I believe Obama will win by double digits.

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain's Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don't have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn't work when George Bush first proposed them and won't work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he's offering the American people is a tax break that won't guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family's premiums by up to $2500 a year.

Rep. Ike Skelton Endorses Clinton

Clinton picks up another superdelegate today, this one from Missouri Congressman Ike Skelton.

Skelton is the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. Clinton sits on the Senate counterpart.

According to the Democratic Convention Watch, the superdelegate count stands as:

Hillary Clinton: 259
Barack Obama: 239
Undecided: 296

Obama Denounces Wright

Today, Barack Obama denounced Rev. Wright over his controversial remarks last March and his comments at the National Press Club.

Instead of quoting him, here is the man himself.

Whether or not this is enough remains to be seen, but according to recent polls, the Wright controversy has certainly done its damage, particularly among white voters. What people can do with Obama's denunciation is read between the lines. Rev. Wright said Obama is a politician and as a politician reads the polls and says what he has to say. Today, the polls show Obama in a closer race in North Carolina and nationally against both Clinton and McCain. Obama addressed that issue in the video above, and I believe him. Nevertheless, Obama's comments could not come at a better time.

As a side note, it is heartbreaking to see Obama throw the man who married him and baptized his children under the bus. As we say, this is politics.

McCain Targets Healthcare

One of the biggest challenges for McCain is domestic issues. No one doubts McCain's national security credentials, but McCain's performance on the stump has been subpar when it comes to the economy and domestic issues. Now, McCain is trying to address the issue with this new spot on Health Care.

Clinton Up 8 and 9 Points in Indiana

Two new polls out from Indiana show Clinton with a moderate lead in Tuesday's Indiana primary.

Survey USA

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 43%

Clinton is down from a 16-point advantage in the last Survey USA poll, but up from a 5-point deficit SUSA did for Downs Center. The poll for Downs Center used a different method of gathering data than what is usually used by SUSA.

PPP

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 42%

Clinton enjoys some internal advantages in Indiana, including the support of Senator and former Governor of Indiana (and possible VP candidate) Evan Bayh. Obama's internal advantages are also matched with a sizable African-American population and Chicago media market that is prevalent in the northern part of the state.

More Superdelegates for Obama

Obama continues to roll out superdelegate endorsements. The latest endorsements comes from Richard Machacek, an Iowa superdelegate.

Another very important endorsement for Obama comes from Kentucky. Congressman Ben Chandler endorsed Obama today. Chandler represents a district that is predominantly white, working class, a demographic Obama has struggled with throughout this campaign.

The Kentucky primary is May 20. Latest polls shows Obama with a huge disadvantage in the state. Clinton leads there 62% to 26% in the last Survey USA poll.

Recommended Reading

Obama Looks for Edge in "Invisible Primary"

NC Governor Mike Easley Endorses Clinton

A little surprising in my opinion, but today, Hillary Clinton received the endorsement of outgoing North Carolina Governor, Mike Easley. This endorsement marks the second superdelegate endorsement from North Carolina for Clinton. Obama has six.

The endorsement comes a little late in my opinion, but could give her a small boost and momentum in the state. She is likely to lose by double digits, but if Clinton manages to keep the race in single digits, look for Easley to jump up a few notches on Clinton's VP list.

Easley is also a superdelegate.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama losing some ground in NC, now leading Clinton 51% to 37%. That is down from a 23-point lead in the last poll. Survey USA has the race in single digits with Obama leading 50% to 41%. PPP (which had Obama winning PA by 3%, but is a NC firm) shows Obama's lead shrinking from 25% to 12%, now 51% to 39%. With the Easley endorsement, the reemergence of Rev. Wright and the GOP ad campaign, don't be surprised if the race is closer than expected when all is set and done.

Keep in mind, Clinton has never over-performed in a southern election, so be very cautious with these polls. Firms have tended to under poll Obama in the south.

Post PA Polls

Lets take a look at the polls post Pennsylvania.

Number in parentheses are the last poll conducted before Pennsylvania.

Gallup has one of the most prominent movement towards Clinton, yet it look like she has peaked at 47%.

Barack Obama: 47% (50%)
Hillary Clinton: 47% (40%)

Gallup has one of the most stable general election matchup I have seen this season, so I can't do an effective comparison.

Barack Obama: 45% (45%)
John McCain: 45% (45%)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (46%)
John McCain: 44% (45%)

Rasmussen on the other hand does not show much movement.

Barack Obama: 48% (49%)
Hillary Clinton: 42% (41%)

General election matchups show some movement towards Democrats.

Barack Obama: 46% (44%)
John McCain: 46% (47%)

Hillary Clinton: 45% (43%)
John McCain: 47% (49%)

Favorable Ratings

John McCain: 51%/46% (51%/46%)
Barack Obama: 50%/47% (49%/49%)
Hillary Clinton: 43%/55% (47%/51%) NET -12 to -4

Where the IN and NC Race Stands Today

The next two races are fast approaching. What do they look like? Here are some polls for you to divulge.

Indiana

Downs Center (4/14-16)

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 50%

LA Times/Bloomberg (4/10-14)

Clinton: 35%
Obama: 40%

Survey USA (4/11-13)

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 39%

ARG (4/2-3)

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 44%

North Carolina

Survey USA (4/19-21)

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 50%

PPP (4/19-20)

Clinton: 32%
Obama: 57%

ARG (4/14-15)

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 52%

Insider Advantage (4/14)

Clinton: 36%
Obama: 51%

LA Times/Bloomberg (4/10-14)

Clinton: 34%
Obama: 47%

David Petraeus Nominated to Head CENTCOM

Today, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced the appointment of David Petraeus to head the U.S. Central Command.

In 2007 Petraeus was appointed as Commanding General of the Multinational Force in Iraq, overseeing the "surge." Through his tenure, military and Iraqi casualties have dramatically fallen, but anti-war sentiments at home remain high.

It is unlikely there will be opposition to his nomination, but it will be interesting to see the reactions of Democrats as a vote for Patraeus can be seen as a vote secondary vote supporting the current course in Iraq. I for one approve of this appointment.

On a political note, Republicans see Patraeus as a possible candidate for President in 2012 if McCain does not win or if he does not seek a second term. It is unclear to me if Patraeus is a Democrat or Republican.

Here are some reactions.

From Senator Harry Reid:

"The next Centcom commander and field commander in Iraq will have to help the next president with a number of critically important challenges: making America more secure, restoring America's power and influence in the world, fixing our costly strategy in Iraq, and articulating a more effective strategy for winning in Afghanistan and defeating Al Qaeda in Pakistan."

From Senator Mitch McConnell:

"Gen. Petraeus will now bring the consummate skill and experience he has developed over a lifetime in uniform to the significant task of guarding our national security interest in a challenging and vital region."

From Senator Joe Lieberman:

"There is no doubt in my mind that Gen. Petraeus and Gen. Odierno are the absolute best men to take on these two critically important assignments."

From Senator Joe Biden:

"I have great respect for General Petraeus and the job he has done in Iraq. But if confirmed, Gen. Petraeus' mission will no longer be just Iraq, it will be the entire region, including the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area where those who actually attacked us on 9-11 have regrouped ... and where we do not have enough troops because of Iraq."

From Senator Jon Kyl

"I applaud the defense secretary's selection of such fine men to lead our forces. Gen. Petraeus and Gen. Odierno implemented the current strategy in Iraq that has given our forces the forward momentum there, and I am certain that Gen. Odierno will continue that progress."

From Senator James Inhofe:

"This is the right move at the right time. No one understands the situation in Iraq better than these two gentlemen. A great trust and unity of purpose has developed between them, and it is imperative that we leverage their shared expertise to capitalize on our post-surge successes."

From Congressman Duncan Hunter:

"Dave Petraeus has exhibited superb leadership in turning around the situation in Iraq. ... As the former commander of U.S. troops in Iraq, Ray Odierno clearly understands the broad picture."

Lt. General Ray Odierno was nominated to replace Patraeus.

Recommended Reading

Here are some items you can read through during your spare time:

The Low Road to Victory, New York Times

The Second Coming of McGovern, NRO

Take These Candidates, Please!, Philadelphia Inquirer

Too Little, Too Late, Dick Morris

Why Obama Won't Win, Theo Caldwell

Why John McCain Can't Win, Bob Beckel

McCain: Kill Anti-Obama Ad

The GOP is planning to roll out a new anti-Obama ad in North Carolina attacking Obama for his connections with his former pastor Jeremiah Wright, this despite objections by both the RNC and John McCain.

From Brent Woodcox, Communications Director for the North Carolina GOP.

“Senator McCain has been very clear that he expects to run a respectful campaign based on the critical issues confronting the nation. The RNC has been in contact with the NC GOP and communicated that we do not believe the ad is appropriate or helpful and have asked that they refrain from running it"

Both RNC Chairman Mike Duncan and John McCain have been in contact with the North Carolina GOP.

From John McCain:

Dear Chairman Daves,

From the beginning of this election, I have been committed to running a respectful campaign based upon an honest debate about the great issues confronting America today. I expect all state parties to do so as well. The television advertisement you are planning to air degrades our civics and distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats. In the strongest terms, I implore you to not run this advertisement.

This ad does not live up to the very high standards we should hold ourselves to in this campaign. We need to run a campaign that is worthy of the people we seek to serve. There is no doubt that we will draw sharp contrasts with the Democrats on fundamental issues critical to the future course of our country. But we need not engage in political tactics that only seek to divide the American people.

Once again, it is imperative that you withdraw this offensive advertisement.

John McCain

What type of impact the ad will have is unclear. Republicans cannot vote in the North Carolina Democratic primary, but the ad could turn Independents away from Obama and towards Clinton.

As a side note, here is the "Willie Horton" ad on Barack Obama.

Clinton Going Through IN and NC

According to the Politico, Hillary Clinton has a planned fundraiser with Chelsea and Dorothy the day after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries.

Looking at the media narrative, Clinton has to win Indiana or it is over, Clinton has other plans. This race goes all the way through the Convention.

Popular Vote and Delegate Count

After the Pennsylvania primary, the delegate count and popular vote looks like this:

NOTE: Delegate allocation is still being tabulated.

Barack Obama

Pledged: 1,487
Superdelegates: 232
TOTAL: 1,719

Hillary Clinton

Pledged: 1,331
Superdelegates: 255
TOTAL: 1,586

Popular Vote

Without FL/MI: Obama +501,138
Without FL/MI (include IA/WA/ME/NV): Obama +611,360
With FL: Obama +206,366
With FL (include IA/WA/ME/NV): Obama +316,588
With FL/MI: Clinton +121,943
With FL/MI (include IA/WA/ME/NV): Clinton +11,721

Clinton popular vote lead will be wiped out with Obama's win in North Carolina, but even so, if she could win WV, KY, IN, and PR by healthy margins, she could hold a popular vote lead in some shape for form.

Pennsylvania Primary Results

DEMOCRATIC Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

Hillary Clinton: 55% (WINNER)
Brack Obama: 45%

Popular Vote: Clinton +216,067

REPUBLICAN Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

John McCain: 73% (WINNER)
Ron Paul: 16%
Mike Huckabee: 11%

Source

Delegate Count

(You can read more on delegate counts here)

IMPORTANT NOTE: Delegate allocation is still being tabulated.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Keep in mind, Iowa, Wyoming, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Minnesota (Republicans), Washington, and Nebraska have not awarded any National Convention delegates and will do so at their respective State Conventions. The delegate counts provided by the media are estimates and may vary in the final result.

Superdelegates and Unpledged delegates who have made an official endorsement are included for the Democrats and Republicans respectively.

Here are the delegate counts as of April 21, 2008.

% is the percent NEEDED to be nominated--2,024 or 2,025 delegates for the Democrats and 1,191 delegates for the Republicans.

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

Clinton Raises $2.5 Million in Hours [UPDATE]

Since Clinton was declared the winner of the Pennsylvania primary, the Clinton camp has raised about $2.5 million, 80% of which are new donors. That is an impressive haul for about 3 hours. Reason enough to stay in the race.

So far, it looks like Clinton may secure a 10-point win over Obama, 55% to 45%.

[UPDATE] April 23, 2:27 PM

Terry McAullife announced on MSNBC the campaign raised $10 million since being declared the winner in Pennsylvania. "50,000 brand new donors." "The biggest day we've ever had."