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Clinton and Obama Play Expectations Game for Q3

With the last week in the quarter coming to an end, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are pushing expectations.

The Clinton campaign said they expect to raise $17-$20 million for the third quarter, while the expect Obama to raise around $30 million citing his internet donations.

“They have an advantage,” the Clinton aide said about Obama’s campaign. “For us, the summer is slow, because we’ve maxed out far more of our donors than they have.”

In response, the Obama campaign announced they expect to raise $17-19 million, while the expect Clinton to raise $35 million.

It’s a little funny when you think about it, but it is the expectations game. I fully expect Clinton and Obama to come out on top of the Q3 fundraising period, but once again, it will be close. The Clinton campaign has said they have “maxed out” which may limit their fundraising this quarter and the next, while Obama has many small contributors who they can tap again. Either way, Clinton and Obama will have more than enough money to compete in the primary.

Head over to the link for more information on Clinton, Obama and other presidential candidates.

Clinton and Obama Play Expectations Game for Q3

With the last week in the quarter coming to an end, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are pushing expectations.

The Clinton campaign said they expect to raise $17-$20 million for the third quarter, while the expect Obama to raise around $30 million citing his internet donations.

“They have an advantage,” the Clinton aide said about Obama’s campaign. “For us, the summer is slow, because we’ve maxed out far more of our donors than they have.”

In response, the Obama campaign announced they expect to raise $17-19 million, while the expect Clinton to raise $35 million.

It’s a little funny when you think about it, but it is the expectations game. I fully expect Clinton and Obama to come out on top of the Q3 fundraising period, but once again, it will be close. The Clinton campaign has said they have “maxed out” which may limit their fundraising this quarter and the next, while Obama has many small contributors who they can tap again. Either way, Clinton and Obama will have more than enough money to compete in the primary.

Head over to the link for more information on Clinton, Obama and other presidential candidates.

Daily Rasmussen: Clinton Running Strong; Romney Growing in Strength

New numbers from Rasmussen today.

National Primary

Republicans

Fred Thompson: 27%
Rudy Giuliani: 21%
Mitt Romney: 14%
John McCain: 12%
Mike Huckabee: 6%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Barack Obama: 25%
John Edwards: 17%
Joe Biden: 3%

Just when you think the race is tightening, Rasmussen puts out a poll completely different from the day before.

Florida Primary

Here are the numbers for the Florida primary here and here.

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 29%
Fred Thompson: 23%
John McCain: 12%
Mitt Romney: 11%
Mike Huckabee: 3%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 47%
Barack Obama: 22%
John Edwards: 11%

With Florida holding its primary on January 29, it will be interesting to see the influence it has on the February 5 semi-national primary. Florida could provide a key firewall for Clinton should she stumble in the early states such as Iowa.

General Election

Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 41%

Barack Obama: 46%
Mitt Romney: 43%

Interesting numbers in these match ups. For the first time, Mitt Romney looks viable against a Democrat. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Romney is not the punching bag Democrats would hope for. Personally, I think Romney is harder to beat than Giualini. One, Giuliani plays dirty. With the voters calling for change, a dirty campaign, or a campaign against Hillary Clinton will not suffice. Second, Giuliani is in many ways, Bush 2.0 on foreign policy. Polls show the American public is tired of the cowboy “diplomacy” of the Bush Administration. Romney on the other hand is playing the change card. It is risky, but it seems to be working and it is what Republicans have to do in order to keep the White House come January 20, 2009. Sarkozy did it and Republicans will have to do it. The problem for Romney is the south.

Romney is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 44%. McCain is viewed favorably by 50%. Obama is viewed favorably by 53%. It certainly is telling when the generic Democrat beats Republicans by double digits, but a Democrat with 3-13 points higher favorable number does not fare as well.

Tennessee General Election

Fred Thompson: 54%
Hillary Clinton: 39%

Fred Thompson: 60%
Barack Obama: 30%

Fred Thompson: 56%
John Edwards: 35%

Rudy Giuliani: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 46%

Mitt Romney: 40%
Hillary Clinton: 46%

Interesting to note, the only southern Democrat in the race does not perform as well as Hillary Clinton. It is an outright loss against Thompson, Clinton loses by 15 points, Edwards loses by 21 points and Obama loses by 30 points but the state comes into play against two northeastern Republicans, Giuliani and Romney, who Clinton beats by 2 and 6 points respectively. Keep this in mind, since 1968, the winner of the general election won Tennessee. The problem for Obama, 56% have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to Edwards and Clinton who are viewed unfavorably by 47% of the electorate. Clinton, Thompson, and Giuliani are the only candidate to receive a majority favorable rating.

It seems to me the argument Clinton is unelectable is mute considering her advantage in Arkansas, Virginia, Florida and Tennesee, all southern states and all carried by Bush in 2000 and 2004. I never considered it to exists in the first place.

Daily Rasmussen: Clinton Running Strong; Romney Growing in Strength

New numbers from Rasmussen today.

National Primary

Republicans

Fred Thompson: 27%
Rudy Giuliani: 21%
Mitt Romney: 14%
John McCain: 12%
Mike Huckabee: 6%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Barack Obama: 25%
John Edwards: 17%
Joe Biden: 3%

Just when you think the race is tightening, Rasmussen puts out a poll completely different from the day before.

Florida Primary

Here are the numbers for the Florida primary here and here.

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 29%
Fred Thompson: 23%
John McCain: 12%
Mitt Romney: 11%
Mike Huckabee: 3%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 47%
Barack Obama: 22%
John Edwards: 11%

With Florida holding its primary on January 29, it will be interesting to see the influence it has on the February 5 semi-national primary. Florida could provide a key firewall for Clinton should she stumble in the early states such as Iowa.

General Election

Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 41%

Barack Obama: 46%
Mitt Romney: 43%

Interesting numbers in these match ups. For the first time, Mitt Romney looks viable against a Democrat. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Romney is not the punching bag Democrats would hope for. Personally, I think Romney is harder to beat than Giualini. One, Giuliani plays dirty. With the voters calling for change, a dirty campaign, or a campaign against Hillary Clinton will not suffice. Second, Giuliani is in many ways, Bush 2.0 on foreign policy. Polls show the American public is tired of the cowboy “diplomacy” of the Bush Administration. Romney on the other hand is playing the change card. It is risky, but it seems to be working and it is what Republicans have to do in order to keep the White House come January 20, 2009. Sarkozy did it and Republicans will have to do it. The problem for Romney is the south.

Romney is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 44%. McCain is viewed favorably by 50%. Obama is viewed favorably by 53%. It certainly is telling when the generic Democrat beats Republicans by double digits, but a Democrat with 3-13 points higher favorable number does not fare as well.

Tennessee General Election

Fred Thompson: 54%
Hillary Clinton: 39%

Fred Thompson: 60%
Barack Obama: 30%

Fred Thompson: 56%
John Edwards: 35%

Rudy Giuliani: 44%
Hillary Clinton: 46%

Mitt Romney: 40%
Hillary Clinton: 46%

Interesting to note, the only southern Democrat in the race does not perform as well as Hillary Clinton. It is an outright loss against Thompson, Clinton loses by 15 points, Edwards loses by 21 points and Obama loses by 30 points but the state comes into play against two northeastern Republicans, Giuliani and Romney, who Clinton beats by 2 and 6 points respectively. Keep this in mind, since 1968, the winner of the general election won Tennessee. The problem for Obama, 56% have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to Edwards and Clinton who are viewed unfavorably by 47% of the electorate. Clinton, Thompson, and Giuliani are the only candidate to receive a majority favorable rating.

It seems to me the argument Clinton is unelectable is mute considering her advantage in Arkansas, Virginia, Florida and Tennesee, all southern states and all carried by Bush in 2000 and 2004. I never considered it to exists in the first place.