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Daily Rasmussen: Huckabee on Top

New national numbers and Iowa numbers from Rasmussen today.


Rudy Giuliani: 24%
Mitt Romney: 15%
John McCain: 14%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Fred Thompson: 11%
Ron Paul: 5%

The more interesting race this election cycle is the Republican race for the nomination. In 2006, John McCain was the frontrunner. Rudy Giulaini took over in the beginning of the year. Fred Thompson rocketed up to frontrunner status and now Mike Huckabee is slowly climbing. Mitt Romney has been roughly in the same position nationally all year. Anyone could be the nominee.

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Barack Obama: 18%
John Edwards: 13%
Bill Richardson: 4%
Joe Biden: 4%

The Democratic race looks pretty much the same way it has all year long. I wonder what would of happen if Mark Warner ran for President?

Iowa Republican Caucus

Mike Huckabee: 28%
Mitt Romney: 25%
Rudy Giuliani: 12%
Fred Thompson: 11%
Ron Paul: 5%
John McCain: 4%
Tom Tancredo: 4%
Duncan Hunter: 1%

Among those who have participated in the caucuses before, Huckabee attracts 30% support while Romney is at 23%. Among those who have not taken part in the caucuses before, it’s Romney 29% Huckabee 26%.

Overall, Romney is the second choice for 21% of likely caucus participants. Huckabee is the second choice for 16%, Giuliani for 15% and Thompson for 14%.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Huckabee supporters say they are certain to vote for him. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Giuliani’s supporters say the same along with 48% of Romney voters and 46% of those for Thompson.

What happens if Huckabee wins Iowa?

Obviously, a Huckabee victory in Iowa would be a serious blow for the Romney campaign. Even a very narrow victory for Romney might be seen as a failure to meet expectations.

At the same time, a Huckabee victory in Iowa might help Giuliani by preventing Romney from getting a head of steam before February 5.

For Thompson and McCain, a Huckabee victory in Iowa would certainly qualify as a very sharp dual-edged sword. On the one hand, it would damage the campaigns of Giuliani and Romney enough to give Thompson and McCain another chance to make their case. But, Huckabee’s ascent might also prevent them from being heard.

For Huckabee himself, while a victory in Iowa would be satisfying, it’s not clear how well he would perform under increased expectations and scrutiny. It’s also not clear what sort of financial resources he could obtain or how strong an organization he could build on the fly.

The bottom line is that a Huckabee victory or near-victory would add even more confusion to an already confusing race for the GOP nomination.

It’s gonna be one helluva race.

Categories: Barack Obama, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Other Politics, RepublicanPosted on: 30th November 2007 by: admin
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