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Strategic Vision: Huckabee and Obama in the Lead

New numbers from Strategic Vision.


Barack Obama 32%
Hillary Clinton 25%
John Edwards 25%
Joseph Biden 5%
Bill Richardson 3%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what are you looking for most in the candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology? (Democrats Only)
Ideology 32%
Charisma 28%
Experience 25%
Undecided 15%

The numbers don’t lie, Obama has taken the lead in Iowa, but will he win. I’m never good at predictions, but I have a hunch John Edwards will take the state.


Mike Huckabee 27%
Mitt Romney 24%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
Fred Thompson 11%
John McCain 6%
Ron Paul 5%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%

How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, or undecided? (Republicans Only)
Very Important 52%
Somewhat Important 15%
Not Very Important 5%
Not Important 17%
Undecided 11%

Huckabee moves into the lead with this poll. Huckabee is in the unfortunate position of getting recognized too late in a year-long race. Where Giuliani and Romney has succeeded, fundraising, Huckabee has yet to break a $1 million in one quarter. Can he capitalize on an Iowa win?

New Hampshire Primary Poll Roundup

Some new numbers for the New Hampshire Primary from Marist and ABC/Washington Post for Democrats and Republicans.


ABC/Washington Post

Hillary Clinton: 35%
Barack Obama: 29%
John Edwards: 17%
Bill Richardson: 10%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%
Joe Biden: 2%
Chris Dodd: 1%

In this poll, 54% of voters see Clinton as the most electable, 48% see Clinton as the most experienced, 47% see Clinton as the strongest leader, while 47% view Obama as most inspiring and 29% view Obama as the most trustworthy. 21% think the same of Clinton and 17% think the same of Edwards. On the issues, Clinton leads across the board, holding double digit leads on Health Care, the economy, terrorism, the federal deficit, and social security, while she also has single digit leads on Iraq and Immigration. About half of the voters view Healthcare as the top issue, followed closely by Iraq.


Hillary Clinton: 37%
Barack Obama: 23%
John Edwards: 18%
Bill Richardson: 8%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%
Joe Biden: 1%

Clinton has the strongest intensity of support with 61% who support her are strongly committed. 54% say the same for Obama and 53% say the same for Edwards.


ABC/Washington Post

Mitt Romney: 37%
John McCain: 20%
Rudy Giuliani: 16%
Mike Huckabee: 9%
Ron Paul: 8%
Fred Thompson: 4%
Duncan hunter: 1%

In the internals, 35% view Romney as the strongest leader, 27% view him as the most trustworthy, 31% view him as the most experienced while 29% have the same view of McCain. 45% view Romney as the most electable, while 30% think the same of Giuliani. On the issues, Romney has double digitleads on the economy, the federal deficit, immigration, social issues, Healthcare and taxes. 31% view both McCain and Giuliani as the best fit to handle terrorism while 36% view McCain as the best fit to handle Iraq.


Mitt Romney: 29%
Rudy Giuliani: 17%
John McCain: 17%
Mike Huckabee: 11%
Ron Paul: 6%
Fred Thompson: 4%
Duncan Hunter: 2%
Tom Tancredo: 1%

50% of Mitt Romney’s supporters are firmly committed to him compared with 60% of Rudy Giuliani’s voters and 58% of John McCain’s backers.

Clinton Proposes Foreclosure Plan and Tax Cuts

Amid the growing foreclosure crisis, Hillary Clinton today proposed a plan to address problem threatening Wall Street with more regulation if swift action is not taken to ease the crisis on the American people.

She proposed a three-step plan, which included a freeze on the subprime rate for owner-occupiers and a tax cut for the middle class to help afford Healthcare, Child care and college.

The Three-Point Plan

1. Observe a foreclosure moratorium of at least 90 days on subprime, owner-occupied homes. The moratorium will stop foreclosures until lenders and servicers have an opportunity to implement the freeze in mortgage rates. The moratorium will also give state and city organizations as well as community groups the necessary time to provide financial counseling to at-risk homeowners.

2. Freeze the monthly rate on subprime adjustable rate mortgages, with the freeze lasting at least 5 years or until the mortgages have been converted into affordable, fixed-rate loans. After the moratorium, there should be a long freeze in rates on adjustable rate mortgages. The overwhelming majority of subprime mortgages have adjustable rates. The long rate freeze will give the housing market time to stabilize. It will give families an opportunity to rebuild equity in their homes. It also gives the mortgage industry time, and incentive, to convert mortgages that were designed to fail into loans that are actually affordable. The rate freeze and loan modification must be extended not only to borrowers who are current but to some who have fallen behind. After all, it is indisputable that brokers and mortgage companies lured families into mortgages that were designed to end in foreclosure. This was only possible because regulators were asleep at the switch. A rate freeze is critical. An average of $30 billion in loans will reset monthly next year. One study indicates that the average reset increases monthly payments by 40%. It is no surprise that rate-resets are the major driver of the foreclosure crisis.

3. Provide status reports on the number of mortgages being modified. Resolution of the foreclosure crisis will require that large numbers of unworkable mortgages be converted to stable loans. To date, however, despite pressure from Congress and the press, lenders and servicers have modified only about 1% of subprime mortgages. This obviously has to change. We cannot take the industry at its words that it will follow through on an agreement to convert loans expeditiously. Accordingly, the agreement must impose on lenders and servicers an obligation to regularly report their loan modifications.

First word is the industry will not support a foreclosure moratorium, according to Kurt Pfotenhauer, senior vice president for government affairs with the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Hillary Clinton was the first candidate to put out a specific proposal leaving other candidates to scramble to put together a plan of their own.

On the tax cuts:

To help families cope with growing economic challenges, Clinton would provide a package of middle class tax cuts, including generous new support to make college, health care and retirement more affordable. She would also implement fast-acting, short-term stimulus measures, including a Community Support Fund of up to $5 billion to help hard-hit communities and distressed homeowners endure the foreclosure crisis, and a $2 billion emergency investment in energy assistance for families in cold weather states.

Clinton’s announcement comes ahead of Bush’s foreclosure plan, which he will headline on Thursday. Kurt Pfotenhauer says Clinton will likely get most of what she asks for with Bush’s plan.

Primary Schedule Updated

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a calendar. At least the Democratic calendar is finalized. The new calendar includes the sanctioned states by both the DNC and RNC plus updated delegate allocations for a host of other states and minor changes in the dates.

This calendar is without a doubt crazy. I’m officially on record supporting a National Primary day in May/June of 2012 for the 2012 General election with a convention for formally nominate the Vice President. Enough of this madness and unfair organization of the calendar, which grants relatively few people too much attention by the candidates and the media.

Daily Rasmussen: Huckabee Leads; Clinton Down

New numbers from Rasmussen on the nomination and Arkansas general election.


Mike Huckabee: 20%
Rudy Giuliani: 17%
John McCain: 13%
Mitt Romney: 13%
Fred Thompson: 10%
Ron Paul: 7%

What used to be an orderly succession has turned into a confused and crazed nomination where anything goes and anyone could win.


Hillary Clinton: 34%
Barack Obama: 24%
John Edwards: 16%
Bill Richardson: 7%

Clinton’s lead has fallen dramatically from her highs. She once polled at 49% in October, but has shaved off 15 points. What is interesting, since that point, neither Obama or Edwards have increased their lead, which means most of those that once supported Clinton are now undecided.

Arkansas General Election

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Rudy Giuliani: 35%

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Mitt Romney: 34%

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Mike Huckabee: 48%

Barack Obama: 42%
Rudy Giuliani: 39%

Barack Obama: 35%
Mike Huckabee: 54%

Hillary has a clear advantage lead both Giuliani and Romney by large margins while losing to Huckabee by six points. Obama also loses to Huckabee by a larger margin but wins Arkansas against Giuliani by three points. Still within the margin of error. Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% of Arkansas voters and unfavorably by 49%. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 66% of voters and unfavorably by 31%. Giuliani is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 53%. Obama is viewed favorably by 45% of voters and unfavorably by 52%. Romney is viewed favorably by 31% of voters and unfavorably by 61%.