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DNC Rules & Bylaws FL/MI Ruling

Here is the ruling.

Florida

1. Allocation of the delegates based on the January 29 Florida primary, 105 for Clinton and 67 for Obama.
2. Full seating of all pledged delegates and superdelegates at half a vote.
3. Final voting weight is 52.5 delegates for Clinton and 33.5 delegates for Obama.

Michigan

1. Adoption of of the Michigan Party plan, dividing the delegates 69 for Clinton and 59 to Obama.
2. Full seating of all pledged delegates and superdelegates at half a vote.
3. Obama gets the 2 add-on delegates from Michigan.
4. Final voting weight is 34.5 delegates for Clinton, 29.5 delegates for Obama.

The new magic number is 2,118 delegates. Obama is about 65 delegates from that number, which he is likely to reach sometime after this Tuesday’s primary in South Dakota and Montana.

MN, KY General Election Polls

Two polls I will like to point out today, one from Minnesota and the other from Kentucky. Both of which surprised me.

Minnesota

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

Over the last year, Minnesota has been in the battleground column and probably still is, however, in the last one or two months, polls have suggested that Minnesota may be lean or even likely Democratic this year. McCain has extraordinary strength in the Great Lakes region, particularly Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Polls in the later two states suggest he can win. With recent polls suggesting that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty may not be a strong Vice Presidential pick against an Obama match-up (here) , one has to wonder if Pawlenty is a smart choice for McCain. It is my personal belief that the Vice Presidential nominee should NEVER be picked based on moving a state from one column to the next or solely based on geography. Perhaps McCain’s meeting with possible Vice Presidential contenders, Jindal, Romney and Crist, says something about his thinking.

Kentucky

McCain: 57%
Obama: 32%

McCain: 42%
Clinton: 51%

Many people are skeptical of this poll and on the surface, rightly so. How in the hell is Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky of all places. The reality is, Clinton has lead several times in Kentucky as early as July 2007 against McCain. The last Survey USA poll out of the state in April should McCain just two points ahead of the New York Senator. Kentucky has voted for the winning candidate since 1964 and are more than open to voting for a conservative Democratic. What have we seen in the closing months of the Democratic nomination–Hillary Clinton’s movement to the center. Does this prove her electability, maybe, maybe not, but once again, it highlights Obama’s problem with Reagan, conservative Democrats.

She Said What?

Definitely not something Clinton needs considering her situation in the Democratic nomination contest.

On Friday during an editorial board meeting with South Dakota newspaper Argus Leader, Clinton invoked the RFK assassination in 1968 as a reason to continue the race to be the Democratic nominee.

Instead of quoting her, here is her comments in full context (something you won’t get in the media).

 

I am willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt and when in context, it does seem she was only referencing why she should go all the way to June–other campaigns have done it before. Bill Clinton wrapped it up in June 1992. RFK was in third place in the delegate count but planned to take it to the convention before his tragic end. Edward Kennedy was far more behind in the delegate count than Clinton and took it to the convention in 1980.

NOTE: My internet is still not up an running. It will be awhile until everything is back to normal.

Current Delegate Count

Real Clear Politics

Obama – 1975, 51 to win

Clinton – 1775, 250 to win

Dem Con Watch

Obama – 1962, 64 to win

Clinton – 1780, 245 to win

CNN

Obama – 1962, 64 to win

Clinton – 1777, 248 to win

MSNBC

Obama – 1960, 66 to win

Clinton – 1783, 243 to win

We will find out if the number needed is is 2,210 or 2,026, on May 31st. That is when the DNC’s rules committee will decide whether or not to reverse their previous decision and count Michigan and Florida.

Some Interesting News Stories

Republicans in trouble elsewhere, Politico:
“In case you’ve been too consumed by the Democratic race to notice, Republicans are getting crushed in historic ways both at the polls and in the polls.”

Obama’s Gameplan, Newsweek:
“For Obama, the challenge will be to respond quickly and surely—but without overreacting or inviting an endless cycle of recriminations.”

Not just a Saturday Night Live skit, Review Journal:
“The record clearly shows that Hillary’s campaign was the first to use Obama’s race against him.”

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama’s response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I’m not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama’s response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I’m not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)