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MN, KY General Election Polls

Two polls I will like to point out today, one from Minnesota and the other from Kentucky. Both of which surprised me.

Minnesota

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

Over the last year, Minnesota has been in the battleground column and probably still is, however, in the last one or two months, polls have suggested that Minnesota may be lean or even likely Democratic this year. McCain has extraordinary strength in the Great Lakes region, particularly Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Polls in the later two states suggest he can win. With recent polls suggesting that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty may not be a strong Vice Presidential pick against an Obama match-up (here) , one has to wonder if Pawlenty is a smart choice for McCain. It is my personal belief that the Vice Presidential nominee should NEVER be picked based on moving a state from one column to the next or solely based on geography. Perhaps McCain’s meeting with possible Vice Presidential contenders, Jindal, Romney and Crist, says something about his thinking.

Kentucky

McCain: 57%
Obama: 32%

McCain: 42%
Clinton: 51%

Many people are skeptical of this poll and on the surface, rightly so. How in the hell is Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky of all places. The reality is, Clinton has lead several times in Kentucky as early as July 2007 against McCain. The last Survey USA poll out of the state in April should McCain just two points ahead of the New York Senator. Kentucky has voted for the winning candidate since 1964 and are more than open to voting for a conservative Democratic. What have we seen in the closing months of the Democratic nomination–Hillary Clinton’s movement to the center. Does this prove her electability, maybe, maybe not, but once again, it highlights Obama’s problem with Reagan, conservative Democrats.