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The Obama Bounce

Many have questioned Obama’s unimpressive bounce since he won the Democratic nomination and was endorsed by Hillary Clinton. Several polls have showed the race still within the low single digits nationally and some polls have showed either little or no bump at all.

Today, Gallup has Obama up 5%, that is a up from being 1% in the red. Rasmussen has Obama up 3%, down from a 4-point lead on June 4, and down from a 7-point lead shortly thereafter. Zogby has Obama up 5%, down from 8%, ABC has Obama up 4%, down from 7%, and Cook has Obama up 4%, up from 1%.

But, despite the national polls showing little or no significant bump, the state polls tell a different story.

Three state polls from Quinnipiac show a dramatic turnaround in favor of Obama.

In Pennsylvania, a state where McCain had hoped to make a dent and is currently advertising, Obama leads, 52% to 40%. In Ohio, another major battleground state, Obama leads 48% to 42%. The biggest blow to the McCain campaign comes from the Sunshine state, where Obama now leads 47% to 43%. Keep in mind, this poll was taken before McCain’s announcement on his support for the repeal of the oil drilling ban off the coast of Florida, a highly unfavorable issue in the state.

Several other polls show a marked improvement for Obama. PPP has Obama up 2% in Virginia, a state that has not voted for the Democratic candidate since LBJ’s landslide victory in 1964. Survey USA has Obama down just 12% in Kentucky. In SUSA’s previous poll, Obama was down 34%. Clinton lead in the state and Obama’s improvement is likely due to Clinton supporters throwing their weight to Obama. Civitas has Obama down 4% in North Carolina. A Rasmussen poll has Obama down just 4% in Alaska and down 1% in Ohio.

While national polls may not indicate it, state polls show a significant Obama bounce in several states including putting previously reliable red states in contention. Is there reason for McCain supporters to hope? Consider this–McCain still outperforms the generic Republican and the national race is in the single digits. Not much to hold on to…