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CNN: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

r the Democratic convention and McCain’s VP announcement, the race for the White House remains in a dead heat. Obama now leads by one point, compared to the last CNN poll, which showed both Obama and McCain even at 47%.

Palin remains vastly unknown, but those who are familiar with the Alaska Governor give favorable ratings. 38% view her favorably while 21% view her unfavorably. Still a 50% say Palin is unqualified to be President, while 45% say she is ready. Oddly enough, women are now less likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, while men are more likely. This is likely due to Palin’s conservative background. In fact, Palin’s conservative background has helped McCain with Republicans, dropping Obama’s share of Republicans from 11% to just 5%.

The results at first glance show no convention bounce for Obama. If there was a bounce, it may have been neutralized by the announcement of Palin as McCain’s VP.

Daily Gallup – August 31, 2008

Gallup confirms that Obama’s bounce has ended.

Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 42%

These results include one convention day, the day of Obama’s speech, and the day McCain announced his Vice President.

Monday’s poll will be the first day with all polling data after the Democratic convention, while Tuesday’s results will be the first day with all polling data after McCain’s VP announcement. We will have to wait after the Republican Convention (which will likely be shortened) to gauge support

Daily Rasmussen – August 31, 2008

According to Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama’s bounce has ended and now leads three points.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 44% (+1)

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 46% (+1)

Favorable/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 57%/41% (+16)
John McCain: 56%/43% (+13)

McCain’s approval among Republicans have solidified why his approval among Independents have grown. 49% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain, up six points since his VP announcement. 64% of Independents have a favorable opinion of McCain, up ten points since his VP announcement.

Zogby: McCain/Palin Beats Obama/Biden

I absolutely dislike Zogby polling, but it is the first match up with the two tickets, so I might as well post it.

McCain/Palin beats Obama/Biden 47% to 45% according to a new Zogby poll. The poll was conducted August 29 to 30. The ticket match ups boosts McCain a few percentage points, largely fueled by the consolidation of Republicans. In a Obama-McCain match up, Obama gets 86% of Democrats while McCain gets 89% of Republicans. When the Vice Presidential picks are added into the equation, Obama’s share among Democrats remains the same while McCain’s share increases to 92%.

Still, in the Presidential match up, Obama edges McCain by an insignificant one point. This is actually an improvement for Obama, which had him down five points in their last poll.

Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 43%
Bob Barr: 5%
Ralph Nader: 2%

Among Independents, Obama leads 39% to 33%. Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr pulls in 11% of Independents, which is likely hurting McCain.

My biggest gripe with this poll is the party identification breakdown. It is clear that this and possibly the last Zogby poll has some weighting issues and under-samples Democrats and over-samples Republicans. If we use the party ID breakdown from CNN 2004 exit polls R 37%, D 37% and I 26%, Obama leads by 1%. If we swing the party ID for Democrats +5 and for Republicans -5, Obama leads by 7%.