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Zogby: McCain/Palin Beats Obama/Biden

I absolutely dislike Zogby polling, but it is the first match up with the two tickets, so I might as well post it.

McCain/Palin beats Obama/Biden 47% to 45% according to a new Zogby poll. The poll was conducted August 29 to 30. The ticket match ups boosts McCain a few percentage points, largely fueled by the consolidation of Republicans. In a Obama-McCain match up, Obama gets 86% of Democrats while McCain gets 89% of Republicans. When the Vice Presidential picks are added into the equation, Obama’s share among Democrats remains the same while McCain’s share increases to 92%.

Still, in the Presidential match up, Obama edges McCain by an insignificant one point. This is actually an improvement for Obama, which had him down five points in their last poll.

Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 43%
Bob Barr: 5%
Ralph Nader: 2%

Among Independents, Obama leads 39% to 33%. Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr pulls in 11% of Independents, which is likely hurting McCain.

My biggest gripe with this poll is the party identification breakdown. It is clear that this and possibly the last Zogby poll has some weighting issues and under-samples Democrats and over-samples Republicans. If we use the party ID breakdown from CNN 2004 exit polls R 37%, D 37% and I 26%, Obama leads by 1%. If we swing the party ID for Democrats +5 and for Republicans -5, Obama leads by 7%.

Categories: Barack Obama, Democrats, John McCain, Other Politics, RepublicanPosted on: 31st August 2008 by: admin
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