Daily Rasmussen – September 4, 2008

The race remains steady today, three days into the Republican Convention.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 47% (-1)
John McCain: 43%

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 45%

Favorable/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 57%/41% (+16)
John McCain: 56%/43% (+13)

Virtually all of the results are based on interviews taken before Palin’s convention speech.

51% believe the media is trying to hurt Palin with their coverage, while only 5% believe they are trying to help. 35% believe the media is providing unbiased coverage. Among Unaffliated voters, 49% think the media is trying to hurt Palin.

On the experience question, 49% say Obama has the experience to be President, while 39% believe Palin has the experience to be President. Among unaffliated voters, 42% give Obama the edge on experiece while 37% give Palin the edge. This poll was taken before Palin’s convention speech.

Daily Rasmussen – September 2, 2008

Today’s Rasmussen numbers show Barack Obama higrowings lead from yesterday, now corssing the 50% mark when leaners are included.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 48% (+1)
John McCain: 43% (-1)

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 51% (+2)
John McCain: 45% (-1)

Favorable/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 58%/41% (+17)
John McCain: 56%/43% (+13)
Sarah Palin: 52%/36% (+18)

An ominous sign for McCain? It is unclear if this is part of a convention bounce or if voters moving towards Obama in light of McCain’s VP choice. While voters still have a favorable view of Palin comparable to the presidential candidates, the partisan gap widens–more Democrats view her less favorably and more Republicans view her very favorably. Given that there has been a lack of Obama’s convention speech coverage and an ever increasing level of negative stories about Palin, it may be safe to infer that McCain’s and Obama’s movement is largely due, though not entirely, to Sarah Palin.

Daily Rasmussen – September 1, 2008

Obama continues to hold a small lead over John McCain as both candidate have good favorable ratings.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 47%

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 46%

Favorabe/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 58%/41% (+17)
John McCain: 57%/42% (+15)

Obama gets favorable views from 85% of Democrats while McCain gets favorable views from 90% of Republicans. Both have favorable views from 60% of Independents.

Who would voters like to meet? 43% of voters would like to meet Obama. 30% would like to meet Palin, 17% would like to meet McCain and only 6% would like to meet Biden.

New party affiliation numbers show Republicans gaining ground. Now, 33.2% describe themselves as Republicans, up 1.6%. 38.9% describe themselves as Democrats, down 0.3%. 28% describe themselves as Independents, down 1.2%. Democrats now hold a 5.7% party ID advantage.

CNN: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

r the Democratic convention and McCain’s VP announcement, the race for the White House remains in a dead heat. Obama now leads by one point, compared to the last CNN poll, which showed both Obama and McCain even at 47%.

Palin remains vastly unknown, but those who are familiar with the Alaska Governor give favorable ratings. 38% view her favorably while 21% view her unfavorably. Still a 50% say Palin is unqualified to be President, while 45% say she is ready. Oddly enough, women are now less likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, while men are more likely. This is likely due to Palin’s conservative background. In fact, Palin’s conservative background has helped McCain with Republicans, dropping Obama’s share of Republicans from 11% to just 5%.

The results at first glance show no convention bounce for Obama. If there was a bounce, it may have been neutralized by the announcement of Palin as McCain’s VP.

Daily Gallup – August 31, 2008

Gallup confirms that Obama’s bounce has ended.

Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 42%

These results include one convention day, the day of Obama’s speech, and the day McCain announced his Vice President.

Monday’s poll will be the first day with all polling data after the Democratic convention, while Tuesday’s results will be the first day with all polling data after McCain’s VP announcement. We will have to wait after the Republican Convention (which will likely be shortened) to gauge support

Daily Rasmussen – August 31, 2008

According to Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama’s bounce has ended and now leads three points.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 44% (+1)

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 46% (+1)

Favorable/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 57%/41% (+16)
John McCain: 56%/43% (+13)

McCain’s approval among Republicans have solidified why his approval among Independents have grown. 49% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain, up six points since his VP announcement. 64% of Independents have a favorable opinion of McCain, up ten points since his VP announcement.

Zogby: McCain/Palin Beats Obama/Biden

I absolutely dislike Zogby polling, but it is the first match up with the two tickets, so I might as well post it.

McCain/Palin beats Obama/Biden 47% to 45% according to a new Zogby poll. The poll was conducted August 29 to 30. The ticket match ups boosts McCain a few percentage points, largely fueled by the consolidation of Republicans. In a Obama-McCain match up, Obama gets 86% of Democrats while McCain gets 89% of Republicans. When the Vice Presidential picks are added into the equation, Obama’s share among Democrats remains the same while McCain’s share increases to 92%.

Still, in the Presidential match up, Obama edges McCain by an insignificant one point. This is actually an improvement for Obama, which had him down five points in their last poll.

Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 43%
Bob Barr: 5%
Ralph Nader: 2%

Among Independents, Obama leads 39% to 33%. Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr pulls in 11% of Independents, which is likely hurting McCain.

My biggest gripe with this poll is the party identification breakdown. It is clear that this and possibly the last Zogby poll has some weighting issues and under-samples Democrats and over-samples Republicans. If we use the party ID breakdown from CNN 2004 exit polls R 37%, D 37% and I 26%, Obama leads by 1%. If we swing the party ID for Democrats +5 and for Republicans -5, Obama leads by 7%.

The Obama Bounce

Many have questioned Obama’s unimpressive bounce since he won the Democratic nomination and was endorsed by Hillary Clinton. Several polls have showed the race still within the low single digits nationally and some polls have showed either little or no bump at all.

Today, Gallup has Obama up 5%, that is a up from being 1% in the red. Rasmussen has Obama up 3%, down from a 4-point lead on June 4, and down from a 7-point lead shortly thereafter. Zogby has Obama up 5%, down from 8%, ABC has Obama up 4%, down from 7%, and Cook has Obama up 4%, up from 1%.

But, despite the national polls showing little or no significant bump, the state polls tell a different story.

Three state polls from Quinnipiac show a dramatic turnaround in favor of Obama.

In Pennsylvania, a state where McCain had hoped to make a dent and is currently advertising, Obama leads, 52% to 40%. In Ohio, another major battleground state, Obama leads 48% to 42%. The biggest blow to the McCain campaign comes from the Sunshine state, where Obama now leads 47% to 43%. Keep in mind, this poll was taken before McCain’s announcement on his support for the repeal of the oil drilling ban off the coast of Florida, a highly unfavorable issue in the state.

Several other polls show a marked improvement for Obama. PPP has Obama up 2% in Virginia, a state that has not voted for the Democratic candidate since LBJ’s landslide victory in 1964. Survey USA has Obama down just 12% in Kentucky. In SUSA’s previous poll, Obama was down 34%. Clinton lead in the state and Obama’s improvement is likely due to Clinton supporters throwing their weight to Obama. Civitas has Obama down 4% in North Carolina. A Rasmussen poll has Obama down just 4% in Alaska and down 1% in Ohio.

While national polls may not indicate it, state polls show a significant Obama bounce in several states including putting previously reliable red states in contention. Is there reason for McCain supporters to hope? Consider this–McCain still outperforms the generic Republican and the national race is in the single digits. Not much to hold on to…

Barack Obama Wins Democratic Nomination

After a long and hard fought Democratic contest, Senator Barack Obama became the victor after securing the 2,118 delegates required to be nominated.

Obama rolled out almost three dozen superdelegates before the South Dakota and Montana primaries, eventually clinching the nomination as the results of the South Dakota primary trickled in. Clinton did not endorse Obama tonight, but all signs point to a possible endorsement tomorrow or in the coming days.

Clinton won the South Dakota primary, home state of prominent Obama supporter and former Majority Leader, Tom Daschle. Obama won the Montana primary.

Obama is now the first African-American to be nominated by a major party, exactly 200 years after the end of the slave trade (1808).

Now, we look to November…

MN, KY General Election Polls

Two polls I will like to point out today, one from Minnesota and the other from Kentucky. Both of which surprised me.

Minnesota

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

Over the last year, Minnesota has been in the battleground column and probably still is, however, in the last one or two months, polls have suggested that Minnesota may be lean or even likely Democratic this year. McCain has extraordinary strength in the Great Lakes region, particularly Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Polls in the later two states suggest he can win. With recent polls suggesting that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty may not be a strong Vice Presidential pick against an Obama match-up (here) , one has to wonder if Pawlenty is a smart choice for McCain. It is my personal belief that the Vice Presidential nominee should NEVER be picked based on moving a state from one column to the next or solely based on geography. Perhaps McCain’s meeting with possible Vice Presidential contenders, Jindal, Romney and Crist, says something about his thinking.

Kentucky

McCain: 57%
Obama: 32%

McCain: 42%
Clinton: 51%

Many people are skeptical of this poll and on the surface, rightly so. How in the hell is Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky of all places. The reality is, Clinton has lead several times in Kentucky as early as July 2007 against McCain. The last Survey USA poll out of the state in April should McCain just two points ahead of the New York Senator. Kentucky has voted for the winning candidate since 1964 and are more than open to voting for a conservative Democratic. What have we seen in the closing months of the Democratic nomination–Hillary Clinton’s movement to the center. Does this prove her electability, maybe, maybe not, but once again, it highlights Obama’s problem with Reagan, conservative Democrats.