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Some Interesting News Stories

Republicans in trouble elsewhere, Politico:
“In case you’ve been too consumed by the Democratic race to notice, Republicans are getting crushed in historic ways both at the polls and in the polls.”

Obama’s Gameplan, Newsweek:
“For Obama, the challenge will be to respond quickly and surely—but without overreacting or inviting an endless cycle of recriminations.”

Not just a Saturday Night Live skit, Review Journal:
“The record clearly shows that Hillary’s campaign was the first to use Obama’s race against him.”

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama’s response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton’s win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I’m not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Hillary Adds Pennsylvania Superdelegate

Since Pennsyvania Obama has a 8 to 4 advantage in announced superdelegates.

From PennLive:

Hillary Rodham Clinton will pick up the support of another influential superdelegate this morning when Bill George declares his support for the senator from New York.

George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, had been one of six remaining undeclared Pennsylvania superdelegates. […]

With George’s support, Clinton extends her lead over fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama to 16-5 among Pennsylvania superdelegates.

Hillary Adds Pennsylvania Superdelegate

Since Pennsyvania Obama has a 8 to 4 advantage in announced superdelegates.

From PennLive:

Hillary Rodham Clinton will pick up the support of another influential superdelegate this morning when Bill George declares his support for the senator from New York.

George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, had been one of six remaining undeclared Pennsylvania superdelegates. […]

With George’s support, Clinton extends her lead over fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama to 16-5 among Pennsylvania superdelegates.

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Membership

Democratic Convention Watch has a list of members on the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.

With the expected hearing on the FL and MI delegation plans on May 31, here is a look at the makeup of the committee and who supports who.

Co-Chairs – no endorsement
Alexis Herman (co-chair, Washington , D.C. )
James Roosevelt, Jr. (co-chair, Massachusetts )

Members – Clinton supporters (12)
Hartina Flournay (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Harold Ickes, Jr. (DC)
Alice Huffman (CA)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Members – Obama supporters (8)
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)
Everett Ward (NC)

Members – no known endorsement (8)
Donna Brazille (DC)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Gates ( NV)
Alice Germond (DC) – DNC Secretary
Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. (TX)
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)

Matt notes that Allan Katz is on Obama’s Finance Committee and Ralph Dawson is one of the few New York superdelegates who have not endorsed Clinton. However, Dawson introduced the measure to strip FL and MI of their delegates.

There are 30 members, hence, 16 is a majority. If all of Clinton’s supporters vote as a block, they will only need 4 more votes to secure their desired outcome.

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Membership

ention Watch has a list of members on the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.

With the expected hearing on the FL and MI delegation plans on May 31, here is a look at the makeup of the committee and who supports who.

Co-Chairs – no endorsement
Alexis Herman (co-chair, Washington , D.C. )
James Roosevelt, Jr. (co-chair, Massachusetts )

Members – Clinton supporters (12)
Hartina Flournay (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Harold Ickes, Jr. (DC)
Alice Huffman (CA)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Members – Obama supporters (8)
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)
Everett Ward (NC)

Members – no known endorsement (8)
Donna Brazille (DC)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Gates ( NV)
Alice Germond (DC) – DNC Secretary
Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. (TX)
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)

Matt notes that Allan Katz is on Obama’s Finance Committee and Ralph Dawson is one of the few New York superdelegates who have not endorsed Clinton. However, Dawson introduced the measure to strip FL and MI of their delegates.

There are 30 members, hence, 16 is a majority. If all of Clinton’s supporters vote as a block, they will only need 4 more votes to secure their desired outcome.

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain’s Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don’t have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn’t work when George Bush first proposed them and won’t work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he’s offering the American people is a tax break that won’t guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family’s premiums by up to $2500 a year.

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain’s Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don’t have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn’t work when George Bush first proposed them and won’t work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he’s offering the American people is a tax break that won’t guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family’s premiums by up to $2500 a year.

Clinton Up 8 and 9 Points in Indiana

Two new polls out from Indiana show Clinton with a moderate lead in Tuesday’s Indiana primary.

Survey USA

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 43%

Clinton is down from a 16-point advantage in the last Survey USA poll, but up from a 5-point deficit SUSA did for Downs Center. The poll for Downs Center used a different method of gathering data than what is usually used by SUSA.

PPP

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 42%

Clinton enjoys some internal advantages in Indiana, including the support of Senator and former Governor of Indiana (and possible VP candidate) Evan Bayh. Obama’s internal advantages are also matched with a sizable African-American population and Chicago media market that is prevalent in the northern part of the state.

More Superdelegates for Obama

Obama continues to roll out superdelegate endorsements. The latest endorsements comes from Richard Machacek, an Iowa superdelegate.

Another very important endorsement for Obama comes from Kentucky. Congressman Ben Chandler endorsed Obama today. Chandler represents a district that is predominantly white, working class, a demographic Obama has struggled with throughout this campaign.

The Kentucky primary is May 20. Latest polls shows Obama with a huge disadvantage in the state. Clinton leads there 62% to 26% in the last Survey USA poll.

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