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McCain Raises $47 Million in August

Since the announcement of Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate, the McCain campaign has pulled in $10 million bringing their total for the month to $47 million.

The numbers are not final and campaign spokesman Brian Rogers says they are still counting.

Because McCain will accept $87 million in public funds, any money raised after today cannot be spent. The McCain campaign says any excess money will be steered to state committees.

The McCain campaign plans on using Palin as fundraiser in the coming months given her success.

This is by far the most the McCain campaign has raised in a month, but it is still less than Obama’s record of $55 million.

Daily Rasmussen – September 1, 2008

Obama continues to hold a small lead over John McCain as both candidate have good favorable ratings.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 47%

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 46%

Favorabe/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 58%/41% (+17)
John McCain: 57%/42% (+15)

Obama gets favorable views from 85% of Democrats while McCain gets favorable views from 90% of Republicans. Both have favorable views from 60% of Independents.

Who would voters like to meet? 43% of voters would like to meet Obama. 30% would like to meet Palin, 17% would like to meet McCain and only 6% would like to meet Biden.

New party affiliation numbers show Republicans gaining ground. Now, 33.2% describe themselves as Republicans, up 1.6%. 38.9% describe themselves as Democrats, down 0.3%. 28% describe themselves as Independents, down 1.2%. Democrats now hold a 5.7% party ID advantage.

CNN: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

r the Democratic convention and McCain’s VP announcement, the race for the White House remains in a dead heat. Obama now leads by one point, compared to the last CNN poll, which showed both Obama and McCain even at 47%.

Palin remains vastly unknown, but those who are familiar with the Alaska Governor give favorable ratings. 38% view her favorably while 21% view her unfavorably. Still a 50% say Palin is unqualified to be President, while 45% say she is ready. Oddly enough, women are now less likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, while men are more likely. This is likely due to Palin’s conservative background. In fact, Palin’s conservative background has helped McCain with Republicans, dropping Obama’s share of Republicans from 11% to just 5%.

The results at first glance show no convention bounce for Obama. If there was a bounce, it may have been neutralized by the announcement of Palin as McCain’s VP.

Daily Gallup – August 31, 2008

Gallup confirms that Obama’s bounce has ended.

Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 42%

These results include one convention day, the day of Obama’s speech, and the day McCain announced his Vice President.

Monday’s poll will be the first day with all polling data after the Democratic convention, while Tuesday’s results will be the first day with all polling data after McCain’s VP announcement. We will have to wait after the Republican Convention (which will likely be shortened) to gauge support

Daily Rasmussen – August 31, 2008

According to Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama’s bounce has ended and now leads three points.

Without Leaners

Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 44% (+1)

With Leaners

Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 46% (+1)

Favorable/Unfavorable (NET)

Barack Obama: 57%/41% (+16)
John McCain: 56%/43% (+13)

McCain’s approval among Republicans have solidified why his approval among Independents have grown. 49% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain, up six points since his VP announcement. 64% of Independents have a favorable opinion of McCain, up ten points since his VP announcement.

Zogby: McCain/Palin Beats Obama/Biden

I absolutely dislike Zogby polling, but it is the first match up with the two tickets, so I might as well post it.

McCain/Palin beats Obama/Biden 47% to 45% according to a new Zogby poll. The poll was conducted August 29 to 30. The ticket match ups boosts McCain a few percentage points, largely fueled by the consolidation of Republicans. In a Obama-McCain match up, Obama gets 86% of Democrats while McCain gets 89% of Republicans. When the Vice Presidential picks are added into the equation, Obama’s share among Democrats remains the same while McCain’s share increases to 92%.

Still, in the Presidential match up, Obama edges McCain by an insignificant one point. This is actually an improvement for Obama, which had him down five points in their last poll.

Barack Obama: 44%
John McCain: 43%
Bob Barr: 5%
Ralph Nader: 2%

Among Independents, Obama leads 39% to 33%. Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr pulls in 11% of Independents, which is likely hurting McCain.

My biggest gripe with this poll is the party identification breakdown. It is clear that this and possibly the last Zogby poll has some weighting issues and under-samples Democrats and over-samples Republicans. If we use the party ID breakdown from CNN 2004 exit polls R 37%, D 37% and I 26%, Obama leads by 1%. If we swing the party ID for Democrats +5 and for Republicans -5, Obama leads by 7%.

The Obama Bounce

Many have questioned Obama’s unimpressive bounce since he won the Democratic nomination and was endorsed by Hillary Clinton. Several polls have showed the race still within the low single digits nationally and some polls have showed either little or no bump at all.

Today, Gallup has Obama up 5%, that is a up from being 1% in the red. Rasmussen has Obama up 3%, down from a 4-point lead on June 4, and down from a 7-point lead shortly thereafter. Zogby has Obama up 5%, down from 8%, ABC has Obama up 4%, down from 7%, and Cook has Obama up 4%, up from 1%.

But, despite the national polls showing little or no significant bump, the state polls tell a different story.

Three state polls from Quinnipiac show a dramatic turnaround in favor of Obama.

In Pennsylvania, a state where McCain had hoped to make a dent and is currently advertising, Obama leads, 52% to 40%. In Ohio, another major battleground state, Obama leads 48% to 42%. The biggest blow to the McCain campaign comes from the Sunshine state, where Obama now leads 47% to 43%. Keep in mind, this poll was taken before McCain’s announcement on his support for the repeal of the oil drilling ban off the coast of Florida, a highly unfavorable issue in the state.

Several other polls show a marked improvement for Obama. PPP has Obama up 2% in Virginia, a state that has not voted for the Democratic candidate since LBJ’s landslide victory in 1964. Survey USA has Obama down just 12% in Kentucky. In SUSA’s previous poll, Obama was down 34%. Clinton lead in the state and Obama’s improvement is likely due to Clinton supporters throwing their weight to Obama. Civitas has Obama down 4% in North Carolina. A Rasmussen poll has Obama down just 4% in Alaska and down 1% in Ohio.

While national polls may not indicate it, state polls show a significant Obama bounce in several states including putting previously reliable red states in contention. Is there reason for McCain supporters to hope? Consider this–McCain still outperforms the generic Republican and the national race is in the single digits. Not much to hold on to…

MN, KY General Election Polls

Two polls I will like to point out today, one from Minnesota and the other from Kentucky. Both of which surprised me.

Minnesota

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

McCain: 38%
Obama: 53%

Over the last year, Minnesota has been in the battleground column and probably still is, however, in the last one or two months, polls have suggested that Minnesota may be lean or even likely Democratic this year. McCain has extraordinary strength in the Great Lakes region, particularly Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Polls in the later two states suggest he can win. With recent polls suggesting that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty may not be a strong Vice Presidential pick against an Obama match-up (here) , one has to wonder if Pawlenty is a smart choice for McCain. It is my personal belief that the Vice Presidential nominee should NEVER be picked based on moving a state from one column to the next or solely based on geography. Perhaps McCain’s meeting with possible Vice Presidential contenders, Jindal, Romney and Crist, says something about his thinking.

Kentucky

McCain: 57%
Obama: 32%

McCain: 42%
Clinton: 51%

Many people are skeptical of this poll and on the surface, rightly so. How in the hell is Clinton beating McCain in Kentucky of all places. The reality is, Clinton has lead several times in Kentucky as early as July 2007 against McCain. The last Survey USA poll out of the state in April should McCain just two points ahead of the New York Senator. Kentucky has voted for the winning candidate since 1964 and are more than open to voting for a conservative Democratic. What have we seen in the closing months of the Democratic nomination–Hillary Clinton’s movement to the center. Does this prove her electability, maybe, maybe not, but once again, it highlights Obama’s problem with Reagan, conservative Democrats.

Some Interesting News Stories

Republicans in trouble elsewhere, Politico:
“In case you’ve been too consumed by the Democratic race to notice, Republicans are getting crushed in historic ways both at the polls and in the polls.”

Obama’s Gameplan, Newsweek:
“For Obama, the challenge will be to respond quickly and surely—but without overreacting or inviting an endless cycle of recriminations.”

Not just a Saturday Night Live skit, Review Journal:
“The record clearly shows that Hillary’s campaign was the first to use Obama’s race against him.”

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain’s Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don’t have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn’t work when George Bush first proposed them and won’t work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he’s offering the American people is a tax break that won’t guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family’s premiums by up to $2500 a year.