My first post on delegate counts was brief with a link to a site that provided very detailed information on the primary process and delegate info. Since I received a few comments on the system and the process, let me do my best to explain the system and the process.
How are Delegates Allocated to Each State?
Delegate allocation rules are decided by the Party. On the Democratic side, the delegate allocation is based on something called an allocation factor which is calculated based on the state's total Democratic vote for the three preceding presidential elections and the states electoral votes. Here is the math:
Allocation Factor = ½ × ( ( State's Democratic Vote ÷ Total Democratic Vote ) + ( State's Electoral Vote ÷ 538 ) )
Example for New York State:
½ × ( ( 12,178,154 ÷ 157,430,363 ) + ( 31 ÷ 538 ) ) = 0.067488
0.067488 is then multiplied by 3000 which give you 202 base delegates. Superdelegates, PLEO's and Bonuses (which are base on what date the state holds its primary) are then added which gives New York a total of 281 delegates to the National Convention.
The Republican allocation rules are MUCH different. Each state is given 10 at-large delegates, 5 for each Senator. In addition, 3 district delegates are given to each elected member of the House of Representatives. 3 "Party Leader" delegates are then given to each state, which comprises of he National Committeeman, the Cational Committee Woman, and the Chairman of the State Republican Party. Next are the bonus delegates. Bonuses are given based on the previous presidential election, the Governorship, the Senate, the House and the state legislature. If a state gave a majority of its electoral votes to the Republican candidate in the previous presidential election then that state will receive a bonus of 4.5 + 0.60 × the Jurisdiction's Total 2004 Electoral Vote. One delegate is awarded to the state for every Republican Senator elected in the six years prior to the year of the general election. States electing a Republican Governor four years prior to the general election is awarded 1 delegate. States which Republican House members controlled 50% of the delegation four years prior to the general gets 1 bonus delegate. States electing a majority of Republicans in one chamber of the state legislature will also get a bonus delegate. States electing a majority of Republicans in both chambers of the state's legislature will get one bonus delegate.
Example for Arizona:
( 10 At-Large + 3 District + 3 Party Leaders ) + ( Presidential Bonus is 4.5 + 0.60 × 10 ) + ( Senate Bonus is 2 ) + ( House Bonus is 1 ) + ( Legislature Bonus is 2 ) = 53 delegates
How are Delegates Allocated to Each Presidential candidate?
This also depends on the Party and the state. There are several different ways of allocating national delegates to the national convention. Some of the common ones are proportional and winner-take-all. On the Democratic side, 38 jurisdictions hold a proportional primary. 18 holds a caucus. In a proportional primary a candidate must receive 15% of the popular vote to be eligible to get delegates. Delegates are then allocated at both the state level and the district level. For example. In New York, 151 delegates will be allocated based on the results of the 29 districts in the state, while 81 delegates will be allocated based on the states total popular vote. This means in a close race a candidate can get the most delegates but not the most votes. If such rules were to be applied to Iowa and Nevada, such outcomes are likely in which Clinton would get more delegates than Edwards in Iowa and Obama will get more delegates than Clinton in Nevada. However, Iowa and Nevada are caucuses which chooses state delegates to the state convention which will ultimately choose the national delegates to the national convention. So, the make up of the delegates can be completely unrepresentative of the actual vote.
On the Republican side, there is mixture of the system of delegate allocation to the candidate. The most common system is the winner-take-all system. 26 jurisdictions have either a winner-take-all system or a winner-take-all system with a combination of another system. In this system, the candidate with the most votes gets all the delegates. Arizona is one of these systems and 50 delegates are tied to the winner-take-all allocation. Some states have winner-take-all by the district. In this case, delegates are allocated to the candidate by simply getting the most votes in a district. California is such a state in which 159 delegates are allocated based on the results of the 53 districts. 11 at-large delegates are awarded to the winner of the state. A proportional primary is essentially the same as the Democrats with the exception of the threshold viability. The threshold viability can vary in the Republican race state by state.
What are Superdelegates?
Superdelegates are party leaders or elected officials which can endorse any candidate at any time and vote for any candidate at the national convention. They can also switch support.
How is a candidate formally nominated?
A candidate must receive 50% of the total delegates to the national convention. In this case, it is 2,025 for the Democrats and 1,191 for the Republicans.
What happens if no candidate receives a majority of the delegates?
We then have what is called a brokered convention. The last one was in 1976, Ford vs. Reagan. All the candidates will go into the convention and essentially negotiate to be the Party's presidential nominee. So, a candidate with the least delegates can go into the convention and come out the nominee. A candidate with no delegate or someone who was not running for President can also jump in. If you want to see a good example of a brokered convention watch "2,162" of The West Wing in which two Vice Presidents, a Congressman and a Governor who jumps into the fray duke it out to be the Democratic nominee.
But, I still don't understand...
Go here: The Green Papers
