Some Interesting News Stories

Republicans in trouble elsewhere, Politico:
"In case you’ve been too consumed by the Democratic race to notice, Republicans are getting crushed in historic ways both at the polls and in the polls."

Obama's Gameplan, Newsweek:
"For Obama, the challenge will be to respond quickly and surely—but without overreacting or inviting an endless cycle of recriminations."

Not just a Saturday Night Live skit, Review Journal:
"The record clearly shows that Hillary's campaign was the first to use Obama's race against him."

Having Internet Problems

Could not come at a better time. I'm having some internet connectivity issues and I'm not sure when it will be fixed.

As a side note, Obama by 14% in North Carolina and a very tight race in Indiana. It may be a double take for Obama. Bad news for Clinton.

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama's response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I'm not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Is This an Attack Ad?

Now, I may support Senator Clinton, but at least you know my biases, having said that, I'm one of the most objective Clinton supporters you are likely to meet. Senator Obama is now accusing Clinton of running the first attack ad of the campaign season. While the ad does mention Obama, the ad is factually correct and displays specifics. Clinton was for a foreclosure moratorium (I support this), Obama was not. Clinton is for a gas tax holiday (I do not support this), Obama is not. This is simply stating a factual difference. If that is an attack ad, then I cannot imagine what I would see in the fall. Is the ad tough? Yes. Is it an attack ad? No. Can it be viewed that way? Obama thinks so.

Hillary Adds Pennsylvania Superdelegate

Since Pennsyvania Obama has a 8 to 4 advantage in announced superdelegates.

From PennLive:

Hillary Rodham Clinton will pick up the support of another influential superdelegate this morning when Bill George declares his support for the senator from New York.

George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, had been one of six remaining undeclared Pennsylvania superdelegates. [...]

With George’s support, Clinton extends her lead over fellow Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama to 16-5 among Pennsylvania superdelegates.

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Membership

Democratic Convention Watch has a list of members on the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.

With the expected hearing on the FL and MI delegation plans on May 31, here is a look at the makeup of the committee and who supports who.

Co-Chairs - no endorsement
Alexis Herman (co-chair, Washington , D.C. )
James Roosevelt, Jr. (co-chair, Massachusetts )

Members - Clinton supporters (12)
Hartina Flournay (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Harold Ickes, Jr. (DC)
Alice Huffman (CA)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Members - Obama supporters (8)
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)
Everett Ward (NC)

Members - no known endorsement (8)
Donna Brazille (DC)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Gates ( NV)
Alice Germond (DC) - DNC Secretary
Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. (TX)
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)

Matt notes that Allan Katz is on Obama's Finance Committee and Ralph Dawson is one of the few New York superdelegates who have not endorsed Clinton. However, Dawson introduced the measure to strip FL and MI of their delegates.

There are 30 members, hence, 16 is a majority. If all of Clinton's supporters vote as a block, they will only need 4 more votes to secure their desired outcome.

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain's Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don't have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn't work when George Bush first proposed them and won't work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he's offering the American people is a tax break that won't guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family's premiums by up to $2500 a year.

Rep. Ike Skelton Endorses Clinton

Clinton picks up another superdelegate today, this one from Missouri Congressman Ike Skelton.

Skelton is the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. Clinton sits on the Senate counterpart.

According to the Democratic Convention Watch, the superdelegate count stands as:

Hillary Clinton: 259
Barack Obama: 239
Undecided: 296

Clinton Up 8 and 9 Points in Indiana

Two new polls out from Indiana show Clinton with a moderate lead in Tuesday's Indiana primary.

Survey USA

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 43%

Clinton is down from a 16-point advantage in the last Survey USA poll, but up from a 5-point deficit SUSA did for Downs Center. The poll for Downs Center used a different method of gathering data than what is usually used by SUSA.

PPP

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 42%

Clinton enjoys some internal advantages in Indiana, including the support of Senator and former Governor of Indiana (and possible VP candidate) Evan Bayh. Obama's internal advantages are also matched with a sizable African-American population and Chicago media market that is prevalent in the northern part of the state.

More Superdelegates for Obama

Obama continues to roll out superdelegate endorsements. The latest endorsements comes from Richard Machacek, an Iowa superdelegate.

Another very important endorsement for Obama comes from Kentucky. Congressman Ben Chandler endorsed Obama today. Chandler represents a district that is predominantly white, working class, a demographic Obama has struggled with throughout this campaign.

The Kentucky primary is May 20. Latest polls shows Obama with a huge disadvantage in the state. Clinton leads there 62% to 26% in the last Survey USA poll.

Recommended Reading

Obama Looks for Edge in "Invisible Primary"

NC Governor Mike Easley Endorses Clinton

A little surprising in my opinion, but today, Hillary Clinton received the endorsement of outgoing North Carolina Governor, Mike Easley. This endorsement marks the second superdelegate endorsement from North Carolina for Clinton. Obama has six.

The endorsement comes a little late in my opinion, but could give her a small boost and momentum in the state. She is likely to lose by double digits, but if Clinton manages to keep the race in single digits, look for Easley to jump up a few notches on Clinton's VP list.

Easley is also a superdelegate.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama losing some ground in NC, now leading Clinton 51% to 37%. That is down from a 23-point lead in the last poll. Survey USA has the race in single digits with Obama leading 50% to 41%. PPP (which had Obama winning PA by 3%, but is a NC firm) shows Obama's lead shrinking from 25% to 12%, now 51% to 39%. With the Easley endorsement, the reemergence of Rev. Wright and the GOP ad campaign, don't be surprised if the race is closer than expected when all is set and done.

Keep in mind, Clinton has never over-performed in a southern election, so be very cautious with these polls. Firms have tended to under poll Obama in the south.

Post PA Polls

Lets take a look at the polls post Pennsylvania.

Number in parentheses are the last poll conducted before Pennsylvania.

Gallup has one of the most prominent movement towards Clinton, yet it look like she has peaked at 47%.

Barack Obama: 47% (50%)
Hillary Clinton: 47% (40%)

Gallup has one of the most stable general election matchup I have seen this season, so I can't do an effective comparison.

Barack Obama: 45% (45%)
John McCain: 45% (45%)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (46%)
John McCain: 44% (45%)

Rasmussen on the other hand does not show much movement.

Barack Obama: 48% (49%)
Hillary Clinton: 42% (41%)

General election matchups show some movement towards Democrats.

Barack Obama: 46% (44%)
John McCain: 46% (47%)

Hillary Clinton: 45% (43%)
John McCain: 47% (49%)

Favorable Ratings

John McCain: 51%/46% (51%/46%)
Barack Obama: 50%/47% (49%/49%)
Hillary Clinton: 43%/55% (47%/51%) NET -12 to -4

Where the IN and NC Race Stands Today

The next two races are fast approaching. What do they look like? Here are some polls for you to divulge.

Indiana

Downs Center (4/14-16)

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 50%

LA Times/Bloomberg (4/10-14)

Clinton: 35%
Obama: 40%

Survey USA (4/11-13)

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 39%

ARG (4/2-3)

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 44%

North Carolina

Survey USA (4/19-21)

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 50%

PPP (4/19-20)

Clinton: 32%
Obama: 57%

ARG (4/14-15)

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 52%

Insider Advantage (4/14)

Clinton: 36%
Obama: 51%

LA Times/Bloomberg (4/10-14)

Clinton: 34%
Obama: 47%

Recommended Reading

Here are some items you can read through during your spare time:

The Low Road to Victory, New York Times

The Second Coming of McGovern, NRO

Take These Candidates, Please!, Philadelphia Inquirer

Too Little, Too Late, Dick Morris

Why Obama Won't Win, Theo Caldwell

Why John McCain Can't Win, Bob Beckel

Clinton Going Through IN and NC

According to the Politico, Hillary Clinton has a planned fundraiser with Chelsea and Dorothy the day after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries.

Looking at the media narrative, Clinton has to win Indiana or it is over, Clinton has other plans. This race goes all the way through the Convention.

Popular Vote and Delegate Count

After the Pennsylvania primary, the delegate count and popular vote looks like this:

NOTE: Delegate allocation is still being tabulated.

Barack Obama

Pledged: 1,487
Superdelegates: 232
TOTAL: 1,719

Hillary Clinton

Pledged: 1,331
Superdelegates: 255
TOTAL: 1,586

Popular Vote

Without FL/MI: Obama +501,138
Without FL/MI (include IA/WA/ME/NV): Obama +611,360
With FL: Obama +206,366
With FL (include IA/WA/ME/NV): Obama +316,588
With FL/MI: Clinton +121,943
With FL/MI (include IA/WA/ME/NV): Clinton +11,721

Clinton popular vote lead will be wiped out with Obama's win in North Carolina, but even so, if she could win WV, KY, IN, and PR by healthy margins, she could hold a popular vote lead in some shape for form.

Pennsylvania Primary Results

DEMOCRATIC Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

Hillary Clinton: 55% (WINNER)
Brack Obama: 45%

Popular Vote: Clinton +216,067

REPUBLICAN Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

John McCain: 73% (WINNER)
Ron Paul: 16%
Mike Huckabee: 11%

Source

Delegate Count

(You can read more on delegate counts here)

IMPORTANT NOTE: Delegate allocation is still being tabulated.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Keep in mind, Iowa, Wyoming, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Minnesota (Republicans), Washington, and Nebraska have not awarded any National Convention delegates and will do so at their respective State Conventions. The delegate counts provided by the media are estimates and may vary in the final result.

Superdelegates and Unpledged delegates who have made an official endorsement are included for the Democrats and Republicans respectively.

Here are the delegate counts as of April 21, 2008.

% is the percent NEEDED to be nominated--2,024 or 2,025 delegates for the Democrats and 1,191 delegates for the Republicans.

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

Clinton Raises $2.5 Million in Hours [UPDATE]

Since Clinton was declared the winner of the Pennsylvania primary, the Clinton camp has raised about $2.5 million, 80% of which are new donors. That is an impressive haul for about 3 hours. Reason enough to stay in the race.

So far, it looks like Clinton may secure a 10-point win over Obama, 55% to 45%.

[UPDATE] April 23, 2:27 PM

Terry McAullife announced on MSNBC the campaign raised $10 million since being declared the winner in Pennsylvania. "50,000 brand new donors." "The biggest day we've ever had."

Clinton, McCain Wins PA.

Fox News has projected that Hillary Clinton will win the Pennsylvania primary. Of course, if this was fair, a win is a win is a win, but it is not. The question will be the margin and at this point, looking at the exits, it does not look like the double digit win Clinton was hoping for and needs.

CNN also projects that John McCain will win the Pennsylvania Republican primary. It will be interesting to see the vote totals for Huckabee and Paul.