Some Interesting News Stories

Republicans in trouble elsewhere, Politico:
"In case you’ve been too consumed by the Democratic race to notice, Republicans are getting crushed in historic ways both at the polls and in the polls."

Obama's Gameplan, Newsweek:
"For Obama, the challenge will be to respond quickly and surely—but without overreacting or inviting an endless cycle of recriminations."

Not just a Saturday Night Live skit, Review Journal:
"The record clearly shows that Hillary's campaign was the first to use Obama's race against him."

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain's Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don't have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn't work when George Bush first proposed them and won't work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he's offering the American people is a tax break that won't guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family's premiums by up to $2500 a year.

McCain Targets Healthcare

One of the biggest challenges for McCain is domestic issues. No one doubts McCain's national security credentials, but McCain's performance on the stump has been subpar when it comes to the economy and domestic issues. Now, McCain is trying to address the issue with this new spot on Health Care.

Post PA Polls

Lets take a look at the polls post Pennsylvania.

Number in parentheses are the last poll conducted before Pennsylvania.

Gallup has one of the most prominent movement towards Clinton, yet it look like she has peaked at 47%.

Barack Obama: 47% (50%)
Hillary Clinton: 47% (40%)

Gallup has one of the most stable general election matchup I have seen this season, so I can't do an effective comparison.

Barack Obama: 45% (45%)
John McCain: 45% (45%)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (46%)
John McCain: 44% (45%)

Rasmussen on the other hand does not show much movement.

Barack Obama: 48% (49%)
Hillary Clinton: 42% (41%)

General election matchups show some movement towards Democrats.

Barack Obama: 46% (44%)
John McCain: 46% (47%)

Hillary Clinton: 45% (43%)
John McCain: 47% (49%)

Favorable Ratings

John McCain: 51%/46% (51%/46%)
Barack Obama: 50%/47% (49%/49%)
Hillary Clinton: 43%/55% (47%/51%) NET -12 to -4

Recommended Reading

Here are some items you can read through during your spare time:

The Low Road to Victory, New York Times

The Second Coming of McGovern, NRO

Take These Candidates, Please!, Philadelphia Inquirer

Too Little, Too Late, Dick Morris

Why Obama Won't Win, Theo Caldwell

Why John McCain Can't Win, Bob Beckel

McCain: Kill Anti-Obama Ad

The GOP is planning to roll out a new anti-Obama ad in North Carolina attacking Obama for his connections with his former pastor Jeremiah Wright, this despite objections by both the RNC and John McCain.

From Brent Woodcox, Communications Director for the North Carolina GOP.

“Senator McCain has been very clear that he expects to run a respectful campaign based on the critical issues confronting the nation. The RNC has been in contact with the NC GOP and communicated that we do not believe the ad is appropriate or helpful and have asked that they refrain from running it"

Both RNC Chairman Mike Duncan and John McCain have been in contact with the North Carolina GOP.

From John McCain:

Dear Chairman Daves,

From the beginning of this election, I have been committed to running a respectful campaign based upon an honest debate about the great issues confronting America today. I expect all state parties to do so as well. The television advertisement you are planning to air degrades our civics and distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats. In the strongest terms, I implore you to not run this advertisement.

This ad does not live up to the very high standards we should hold ourselves to in this campaign. We need to run a campaign that is worthy of the people we seek to serve. There is no doubt that we will draw sharp contrasts with the Democrats on fundamental issues critical to the future course of our country. But we need not engage in political tactics that only seek to divide the American people.

Once again, it is imperative that you withdraw this offensive advertisement.

John McCain

What type of impact the ad will have is unclear. Republicans cannot vote in the North Carolina Democratic primary, but the ad could turn Independents away from Obama and towards Clinton.

As a side note, here is the "Willie Horton" ad on Barack Obama.

Pennsylvania Primary Results

DEMOCRATIC Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

Hillary Clinton: 55% (WINNER)
Brack Obama: 45%

Popular Vote: Clinton +216,067

REPUBLICAN Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

John McCain: 73% (WINNER)
Ron Paul: 16%
Mike Huckabee: 11%

Source

Delegate Count

(You can read more on delegate counts here)

IMPORTANT NOTE: Delegate allocation is still being tabulated.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Keep in mind, Iowa, Wyoming, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, Minnesota (Republicans), Washington, and Nebraska have not awarded any National Convention delegates and will do so at their respective State Conventions. The delegate counts provided by the media are estimates and may vary in the final result.

Superdelegates and Unpledged delegates who have made an official endorsement are included for the Democrats and Republicans respectively.

Here are the delegate counts as of April 21, 2008.

% is the percent NEEDED to be nominated--2,024 or 2,025 delegates for the Democrats and 1,191 delegates for the Republicans.

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

Clinton, McCain Wins PA.

Fox News has projected that Hillary Clinton will win the Pennsylvania primary. Of course, if this was fair, a win is a win is a win, but it is not. The question will be the margin and at this point, looking at the exits, it does not look like the double digit win Clinton was hoping for and needs.

CNN also projects that John McCain will win the Pennsylvania Republican primary. It will be interesting to see the vote totals for Huckabee and Paul.

March FEC Reports

The candidate's FEC reports are out for the month of March. Once again, it shows Obama leading in fundraising, Clinton still in the red, and McCain struggling to raise funds.

Barack Obama
Raised: $41.1 million
Spent: $28.9 million
Cash-on-Hand: $51 million
Debt: $662,000

Hillary Clinton
Raised: $20.1 million
Spent: $21.5 million
Cash-on-Hand: $31.7 million
Debt: $10.3 million

John McCain
Raised: $12 million
Spent: $8.5 million
Cash-on-Hand: $11.6 million
Debt: $707,000

Some notes: Clinton has more general election funds than any candidate. She also has the most debt, which means she is in the red in primary funds.

Candidate's WWE Message

Here are the video's all three candidate put together for their appearance on WWE.

It's nice to have a little fun once in awhile.

McCain Leading in the Polls

From Rasmussen as of today:

"Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 50% to 42% (see recent daily results). New polling shows McCain leading both Democrats in Georgia and Arkansas. In Minnesota, the race is very close."

McCain's Statement on Iraq War

McCain has placed a large portion of his chips on the Iraq war. Here is his statement on the 5th anniversary of the invasion.

"Today in Iraq, America and our allies stand on the precipice of winning a major victory against radical Islamic extremism. The security gains over the past year have been dramatic and undeniable. Al Qaeda and Shia extremists — with support from external powers such as Iran — are on the run but not defeated. Tough fighting remains ahead, especially in places like Mosul. Important political gains have also been made, but far more must be done in coming months to cement the gains made in huge cost in American blood and treasure.

"Americans should be proud that they led the way in removing a vicious, predatory dictator and opening the possibility of a free and stable Iraq. Americans should be proud that once we implemented the surge and new counterinsurgency strategy, a dire situation has been dramatically improved. And Americans know that the consequences of failure would leave our nation less secure for generations to come."

John McCain Wins Republican Nomination!

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a nominee. Senator John McCain of Arizona will be the Republican Presidential nominee.

McCain faced a rocky road to the nomination. Once the frontrunner and once political dead in the water, McCain went against all odds to make an enormous comeback. Can he go all the way?

Word has it that President Bush will officially endorse McCain tomorrow.

Romney Endorses McCain

Now on CNN. Mitt Romney announces he endorses John McCain for President and instructed his delegates to vote for John McCain at the convention.

McCain currently has 832 delegates according to CNN. Romney has 286 delegates. If all of Romney's delegates support McCain, as of today, McCain has 1,118 delegates. 1,191 delegates are needed for the nomination.

McCain Goes After Obama in Victory Speech

It seems John McCain knows who his general election opponent will be. In his victory speech last night, McCain took a veild swipe at Barack Obama on his message of hope.

Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience. And I stood astonished at the resilience of their hope in the darkest of hours because it did not reside in an exaggerated belief in their individual strength, but in the support of their comrades, and their faith in their country. My hope for our country resides in my faith in the American character, the character which proudly defends the right to think and do for ourselves, but perceives self-interest in accord with a kinship of ideals, which, when called upon, Americans will defend with their very lives.

To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.

When I was a young man, I thought glory was the highest ambition, and that all glory was self-glory. My parents tried to teach me otherwise, as did the Naval Academy. But I didn't understand the lesson until later in life, when I confronted challenges I never expected to face.

I did not see his speech, but on paper, it is very powerful. The problem is, can McCain actually portray himself as the real candidate of hope. He has a very unique history that could play well if used effectively. Will an Obama vs. McCain campaign result in hope vs. real hope?

What's the Message?

The following tag clouds are from tagcrowd.com. First, try and guess who it might be, it's not that hard if you've been paying attention. The next question, what does it mean?

The first is Barack Obama on Feb. 12 after winning the Potomac Primaries, the second is John McCain at the CPAC conference on Feb. 7, and the last is Hillary Clinton at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Richmond, Va. on Feb. 9.

First, this now makes political speeches a great drinking game. Drink when you hear "change," "America or American," "people," and "dream."

Besides drinking, what can you gather? For Obama, the major themes are about people, the American Dream, and hope. This fits his image as a new JFK. I would bet politicos consider Obama to be on message. Meaning, his words fit the image he gives.

For McCain, country and positions tie for his number 1 word, followed by intend, and defended. Conservative was said 10 times. This comes across as a very defensive speech which makes sense since he was trying to sell himself to the Conservatives at CPAC.

Clinton's number 1 word was used a whopping 21 times America (that had to get old). Then people, children, senator and president. She only used change 4 times strangely enough. These words seem to be populist in nature, while adding her credentials and the job she wants. This may be an image she wants to pursue, but probably isn't selling as well as Obama is selling his message.

If you're interested in dissecting a candidates message, go to www.tagcrowd.com and paste in a speech. See what shows up the most and then read the entire speech to read the context. The key to these candidates is often what we hear, not what they say. So see if their themes seem to match their message.

Odds Against Huckabee

When you crunch the numbers, it makes you wonder why Mike Huckabee is still in this race. According to CNN, 1,242 delegates have been awarded, which means 1,138 delegates remain to be allocated. Huckabee has 217 delegates and need an additional 974 delegates to secure the nomination. Huckabee will have to win 86% of the remaining delegates to be the Republican presidential nominee. Compare that to McCain who has to win 468 delegates or 41% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

So, why is Huckabee is rolling along his campaign? Maybe he is now running for Vice President. Maybe he is running for 2012.

McCain Will Not Accept Matching Funds

After struggling for survival last year, John McCain announced that he will accept federal matching funds to keep his campaign alive during the primary season. But, since his newfound success in New Hampshire, money seems to be coming in pretty fluidly and the McCain camp has now sent a letter to the FEC declining matching funds.

"I will make no further requests for matching-fund payment certification and will not accept any matching-fund payments including the initial amount and other amounts certified by the commission in connections with my campaign's previous submissions," McCain wrote in a letter to the FEC last week.

McCain was eligible for $5.8 million in matching funds, which he would have received in March had he accepted. Taking the money would have also limit his campaign to a $54 million spending limit for the primary season, which runs through the Convention.

Jeb Bush Endorses McCain

John McCain picked up another high profile endorsement, this one from the President's brother and former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush.

In a statement, Bush praised McCain as a “patriot and devoted conservative leader.” He added, “like no other candidate in the field, John McCain has made tremendous sacrifices for this nation. He is beholden to no interest other than that of the public good. He is determined and steadfast in his commitment to reducing the burden of high taxes, restoring the people’s trust in their government, and winning the war against radical Islamic extremists. It is with pride that I announce my endorsement of John McCain for president.”

McCain has received some heat from conservatives who outright do not trust the Senator to represent their values (it makes you wonder why they liked Giuliani in the first place). Former Governor Bush can help mend differences with this key voting block, but it looks like McCain has a lot of work to do, especially when people like Ann Coulter says she will vote and campaign for Clinton if McCain is the nominee.