Having Internet Problems

Could not come at a better time. I'm having some internet connectivity issues and I'm not sure when it will be fixed.

As a side note, Obama by 14% in North Carolina and a very tight race in Indiana. It may be a double take for Obama. Bad news for Clinton.

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama's response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I'm not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Survey USA Shows Single Digit NC Race

Survey USA released its new North Carolina poll today, showing a close single digit race.

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

Obama's lead is down from the last poll, which showed him winning the state by 9 points.

Some interesting demographics.

Clinton wins whites by 31 points. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton now leads by 4 points. This suggest the recent Wright controversy may have had some effect. We will have to wait until next week to see if Obama's response gained him any points.

Note of caution, in Survey USA's PA polls, SUSA over-polled Clinton all the way up to their last poll where they under-polled Clinton. Is it possible the same is happening with Obama, except in reverse?

If the race in North Carolina ends in the single digits, and Clinton walks away with an Indiana win, this could make the race for the Democratic nomination wide open. Obama is widely expected to win North Carolina by huge margins, any sign of weakness in the Obama candidacy can not only sway voters, but swing superdelegates. Having said all that, I believe Obama will win by double digits.

NC Governor Mike Easley Endorses Clinton

A little surprising in my opinion, but today, Hillary Clinton received the endorsement of outgoing North Carolina Governor, Mike Easley. This endorsement marks the second superdelegate endorsement from North Carolina for Clinton. Obama has six.

The endorsement comes a little late in my opinion, but could give her a small boost and momentum in the state. She is likely to lose by double digits, but if Clinton manages to keep the race in single digits, look for Easley to jump up a few notches on Clinton's VP list.

Easley is also a superdelegate.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama losing some ground in NC, now leading Clinton 51% to 37%. That is down from a 23-point lead in the last poll. Survey USA has the race in single digits with Obama leading 50% to 41%. PPP (which had Obama winning PA by 3%, but is a NC firm) shows Obama's lead shrinking from 25% to 12%, now 51% to 39%. With the Easley endorsement, the reemergence of Rev. Wright and the GOP ad campaign, don't be surprised if the race is closer than expected when all is set and done.

Keep in mind, Clinton has never over-performed in a southern election, so be very cautious with these polls. Firms have tended to under poll Obama in the south.

Where the IN and NC Race Stands Today

The next two races are fast approaching. What do they look like? Here are some polls for you to divulge.

Indiana

Downs Center (4/14-16)

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 50%

LA Times/Bloomberg (4/10-14)

Clinton: 35%
Obama: 40%

Survey USA (4/11-13)

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 39%

ARG (4/2-3)

Clinton: 53%
Obama: 44%

North Carolina

Survey USA (4/19-21)

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 50%

PPP (4/19-20)

Clinton: 32%
Obama: 57%

ARG (4/14-15)

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 52%

Insider Advantage (4/14)

Clinton: 36%
Obama: 51%

LA Times/Bloomberg (4/10-14)

Clinton: 34%
Obama: 47%

McCain: Kill Anti-Obama Ad

The GOP is planning to roll out a new anti-Obama ad in North Carolina attacking Obama for his connections with his former pastor Jeremiah Wright, this despite objections by both the RNC and John McCain.

From Brent Woodcox, Communications Director for the North Carolina GOP.

“Senator McCain has been very clear that he expects to run a respectful campaign based on the critical issues confronting the nation. The RNC has been in contact with the NC GOP and communicated that we do not believe the ad is appropriate or helpful and have asked that they refrain from running it"

Both RNC Chairman Mike Duncan and John McCain have been in contact with the North Carolina GOP.

From John McCain:

Dear Chairman Daves,

From the beginning of this election, I have been committed to running a respectful campaign based upon an honest debate about the great issues confronting America today. I expect all state parties to do so as well. The television advertisement you are planning to air degrades our civics and distracts us from the very real differences we have with the Democrats. In the strongest terms, I implore you to not run this advertisement.

This ad does not live up to the very high standards we should hold ourselves to in this campaign. We need to run a campaign that is worthy of the people we seek to serve. There is no doubt that we will draw sharp contrasts with the Democrats on fundamental issues critical to the future course of our country. But we need not engage in political tactics that only seek to divide the American people.

Once again, it is imperative that you withdraw this offensive advertisement.

John McCain

What type of impact the ad will have is unclear. Republicans cannot vote in the North Carolina Democratic primary, but the ad could turn Independents away from Obama and towards Clinton.

As a side note, here is the "Willie Horton" ad on Barack Obama.

29 NC Legislators Endorse Obama

Senate Majority Leader Tony Rand and former Speaker of the House Dan Blue of Raleigh along with over two dozen North Carolina legislators endorsed Barack Obama today, two weeks before the primary.

"I hope this is not what we can should expect to come to North Carolina in the next two weeks," Blue said. "Tired old political tactics aren't going to bring about the kind of change we need."

Obama currently leads in the state 15-25 points and is widely expected to win. The legislators will help get out the vote and raise money.