Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama's response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I'm not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Survey USA Shows Single Digit NC Race

Survey USA released its new North Carolina poll today, showing a close single digit race.

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

Obama's lead is down from the last poll, which showed him winning the state by 9 points.

Some interesting demographics.

Clinton wins whites by 31 points. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton now leads by 4 points. This suggest the recent Wright controversy may have had some effect. We will have to wait until next week to see if Obama's response gained him any points.

Note of caution, in Survey USA's PA polls, SUSA over-polled Clinton all the way up to their last poll where they under-polled Clinton. Is it possible the same is happening with Obama, except in reverse?

If the race in North Carolina ends in the single digits, and Clinton walks away with an Indiana win, this could make the race for the Democratic nomination wide open. Obama is widely expected to win North Carolina by huge margins, any sign of weakness in the Obama candidacy can not only sway voters, but swing superdelegates. Having said all that, I believe Obama will win by double digits.

Clinton Up 8 and 9 Points in Indiana

Two new polls out from Indiana show Clinton with a moderate lead in Tuesday's Indiana primary.

Survey USA

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 43%

Clinton is down from a 16-point advantage in the last Survey USA poll, but up from a 5-point deficit SUSA did for Downs Center. The poll for Downs Center used a different method of gathering data than what is usually used by SUSA.

PPP

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 42%

Clinton enjoys some internal advantages in Indiana, including the support of Senator and former Governor of Indiana (and possible VP candidate) Evan Bayh. Obama's internal advantages are also matched with a sizable African-American population and Chicago media market that is prevalent in the northern part of the state.

NC Governor Mike Easley Endorses Clinton

A little surprising in my opinion, but today, Hillary Clinton received the endorsement of outgoing North Carolina Governor, Mike Easley. This endorsement marks the second superdelegate endorsement from North Carolina for Clinton. Obama has six.

The endorsement comes a little late in my opinion, but could give her a small boost and momentum in the state. She is likely to lose by double digits, but if Clinton manages to keep the race in single digits, look for Easley to jump up a few notches on Clinton's VP list.

Easley is also a superdelegate.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama losing some ground in NC, now leading Clinton 51% to 37%. That is down from a 23-point lead in the last poll. Survey USA has the race in single digits with Obama leading 50% to 41%. PPP (which had Obama winning PA by 3%, but is a NC firm) shows Obama's lead shrinking from 25% to 12%, now 51% to 39%. With the Easley endorsement, the reemergence of Rev. Wright and the GOP ad campaign, don't be surprised if the race is closer than expected when all is set and done.

Keep in mind, Clinton has never over-performed in a southern election, so be very cautious with these polls. Firms have tended to under poll Obama in the south.

Post PA Polls

Lets take a look at the polls post Pennsylvania.

Number in parentheses are the last poll conducted before Pennsylvania.

Gallup has one of the most prominent movement towards Clinton, yet it look like she has peaked at 47%.

Barack Obama: 47% (50%)
Hillary Clinton: 47% (40%)

Gallup has one of the most stable general election matchup I have seen this season, so I can't do an effective comparison.

Barack Obama: 45% (45%)
John McCain: 45% (45%)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (46%)
John McCain: 44% (45%)

Rasmussen on the other hand does not show much movement.

Barack Obama: 48% (49%)
Hillary Clinton: 42% (41%)

General election matchups show some movement towards Democrats.

Barack Obama: 46% (44%)
John McCain: 46% (47%)

Hillary Clinton: 45% (43%)
John McCain: 47% (49%)

Favorable Ratings

John McCain: 51%/46% (51%/46%)
Barack Obama: 50%/47% (49%/49%)
Hillary Clinton: 43%/55% (47%/51%) NET -12 to -4

Poll Results

Question: Which Party do you support?

Democratic Party: 55% (140 votes)
Republican Party: 38% (96 votes)
Other: 6% (16 votes)

So, I have mostly Democratic readers. What can I do to attract more Republican readers?

I'll post another poll later in the day.

Poll Results

Question: Do you support Bush's Economic Stimulus Plan?

Yes: 65 (40%)
No: 99 (60%)

Next Question: Which Party do you support?

More February 5th Polls

Here is a new batch of Super Tuesday polls.

* Indicates a poll which included Edwards for the Democrats and Giuliani for the Republicans.

Democrats

Republicans



You can find links to all these polls here.

The Crist Bump?

After John McCain received the endorsement from Senator Mel Martinez and Governor Charlie Crist, new polls show that McCain may have recived a slight bump.

Here are the numbers from the new Zogby poll.

John McCain: 33% (+3)
Mitt Romney: 30% (-3)
Rudy Giuliani: 14% (+1)
Mike Huckabee: 11% (-3)
Ron Paul: 2% (-1)

A win in Florida for McCain will certainly make him the national frontrunner going into Super Tuesday next week and make Romney's money worthless.

Here are the numbers from Rasmussen.

Mitt Romney: 31% (-2)
John McCain: (31%) (+4)
Rudy Giuliani: 16% (-2)
Mike Huckabee: 11% (-1)
Ron Paul: 4% (+2)

Romney Looking Good in Florida

It looks like the ad buys in Florida has done Romney some good, two new polls shows some good news for the former Governor.

Rasmussen

Mitt Romney: 33%
John McCain: 27%
Rudy Giuliani: 18%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Ron Paul: 2%

Zogby

Mitt Romney: 30%
John McCain: 30%
Mike Huckabee: 14%
Rudy Giuliani: 13%
Ron Paul: 3%

One thing this polls does not take into account is absentee ballots, which may work in Giuliani's favor. Either way, Giuliani MUST finish first in Florida or his campaign strategy will go down as the worst in electoral history. The biggest question is what happens if Romney wins Florida?

Polls Look Good for Clinton and McCain in February 5 States

Lots of polls were released in the last two days, so here is a chart with the results.

Democrats

What a South Carolina win (depends on how big he wins) means for Obama in states like Alabama, Georgia, Virginia and Louisiana remains to be seen. Will an expected win in Florida for Clinton neutralize Obama's momentum?

Republicans



It is now pretty clear Florida is a must win for Giuliani. A loss there means the end of his campaign judging by the numbers.

Links to the polls: Rasmussen Missouri (Democrats, Republicans), Research 2000, Behavior Research Center, WSMV, PPIC, Rasmussen Alabama (Democrats, Republicans), Rasmussen Georgia, Survey USA (Democrats, Republicans)

UPDATE:

I missed one poll: Georgia for Democrats

Clinton: 41%
Obama: 35%
Edwards: 13%

Zogby Poll Show Tighter DEM SC Race

Today's Zogby poll shows the South Carolina Democratic race tightening. Here is the breakdown:

Barack Obama: 38% (down 5% from 1/22)
Hillary Clinton: 25% (No change)
John Edwards: 21% (up 6% from 1/22)

What is intriguing is the numbers collected on Thursday for Zogby's three-day rolling average:

Barack Obama: 36%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
John Edwards: 19%

Obama's support from African-Americans is down to 55% compared to Clinton with 18% and Edwards who is up to 7%. Obama remains ahead with women, 34% to Clinton 28%. Obama lost 8 points among men, going from 50% to 42%, compared to Edward 24% and Clinton's 21%.

Clinton has returned to the state. Will that make a difference? Can Edwards surpass her and take second place? We won't know until Saturday.

South Carolina DEM Polls Show Movement

A few new South Carolina polls were released for the Democratic race and it shows some movement. In a nutshell, Obama is down, Clinton is slightly down and Edwards is up.



I'll point you to the Zogby poll which on the last day of polling (Wednesday) showed Edwards moving slightly ahead of Clinton to second place. The racial divide is very apparent with African-American moving heavily to Obama and White voters moving heavily to Edwards and Clinton. However, in the last three days Obama has lost nine points among African-Americans, 65% to 56%. Some of that support went to Edwards and Clinton. Edwards leads among White voters. Can Edwards pull off a second place finish? Maybe it is why Hillary Clinton returned to South Carolina one day ahead of schedule.

Two New Polls Shows McCain Leading in New York

Forget Florida. If Rudy Giuliani cannot win his home state of New York, how could he possibly win the nomination? Two new polls show surprising results.

Marist

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 32%
John Edwards: 9%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%

Republicans

John McCain: 34%
Rudy Giuliani: 19%
Mitt Romney: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
Fred Thompson: 6%

Siena

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 23%
John Edwards: 10%

Republicans

John McCain: 36%
Rudy Giuliani: 24%
Mitt Romney: 10%
Mike Huckabee: 7%
Fred Thompson: 6%

Nevada Polls; No Prediction From Me

Not much polling has been done for the state of Nevada, but in the final stretch, here are two new polls for you to chew on.

Zogby

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 37%
John Edwards: 12%

Mason-Dixon

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Barack Obama: 32%
John Edwards: 14%

Republicans

Mitt Romney: 34%
John McCain: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 13%
Fred Thompson: 8%
Ron Paul: 7%
Rudy Giuliani: 6%

I'm reluctant to make any predictions and considering this is a caucus, I won't even go there. It will be interesting to see if Paul out-paces Giuliani again.

Three-Way Democratic Race in Nevada

This is the first Nevada poll post Iowa and New Hampshire.

Research 2000

Democrats

Barack Obama: 32%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
John Edwards: 27%

Republicans

John McCain: 22%
Rudy Giuliani: 18%
Mike Huckabee: 16%
Mitt Romney: 15%
Fred Thompson: 11%
Ron Paul: 6%

Michigan Polls Show Tight Republican Race

Some polls on the Michigan primary to be held on Tuesday.

Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby

Republicans

John McCain: 27%
Mitt Romeny: 24%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
Ron Paul: 6%
Rudy Giuliani: 6%
Fred Thompson: 5%

Mitchell Research

Republicans

Mitt Romney: 29%
John McCain: 27%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Ron Paul: 7%
Rudy Giuliani: 7%
Fred Thompson: 4%

Detroit News

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 56%
Uncommitted: 33%

Republicans

John McCain: 27%
Mitt Romeny: 26%
Mike Huckabee: 19%
Rudy Giuliani: 6%
Fred Thompson: 5%
Ron Paul: 4%

Detroit Fress Press

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 56%
Uncommitted: 30%

Republicans

Mitt Romney: 27%
John McCain: 22%
Mike Huckabee: 16%
Ron Paul: 5%
Rudy Giuliani: 4%
Fred Thompson: 4%

American Research Group

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 57%
Uncommitted: 28%

Republicans

John McCain: 34%
Mitt Romeny: 27%
Mike Huckabee: 15%
Ron Paul: 9%
Rudy Giuliani: 5%
Fred Thompson: 4%

Hillary Clinton is the only major Democrat on the ballot and will likely get 60%+ of the vote. There is an "Uncommitted" campaign underway. Clinton is not campaigning in the state.

On the Republican side, it is close. The state will likely go to either Romney or McCain. It is too early to tell.

Rasmussen South Carolina Poll Shows McCain Rising

A new poll from Rasmussen on the South Carolina primary.

Rasmussen

Democrats

Barack Obama: 38%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
John Edwards: 17%

Republicans

John McCain: 28%
Mike Huckabee: 19%
Mitt Romeny: 17%
Fred Thompson: 16%
Rudy Giuliani: 5%
Ron Paul: 5%

The previous Democratic poll showed Obama with a 12-point lead, that is now down to 5 points. The poll was taken on the 13th, right when the racial tensions between the Clinton and Obama camp began to heat up. So, it is likely this bump was due to Clinton's win in New Hampshire and not a backlash from African-Americans who think it is unfair to question the Clinton's dedication to African-Americans or injecting race into the campaign.

McCain now leads in South Carolina and is benefiting from three candidates who are splitting the conservative vote.

National Polls

I have a host of polls to post on the national race, and state races, so bare with me. It will take a few posts to get through them all. And yes, we have not learned our lesson from New Hampshire. Still, it is good to have polls to at least gauge general support.

USA Today/Gallup

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 45%
Barack Obama: 33%
John Edwards: 13%

Republicans

John McCain: 33%
Mike Huckabee: 19%
Rudy Giuliani: 13%
Mitt Romney: 11%
Fred Thompson: 9%
Ron Paul: 3%

CBS News/NY Times (Republicans)

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 27%
John Edwards: 11%

Republicans

John McCain: 33%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Rudy Giuliani: 10%
Mitt Romney: 8%
Fred Thompson: 8%
Ron Paul: 5%

ABC/Washington Post

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 37%
John Edwards: 12%

Republicans

John McCain: 28%
Mike Huckabee: 20%
Mitt Romney: 19%
Rudy Giuliani: 15%
Fred Thompson: 8%
Ron Paul: 3%

CNN

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 36%
John Edwards: 12%

Republicans

John McCain: 23%
Mike Huckabee: 20%
Mitt Romeny: 13%
Fred Thompson: 12%
Rudy Giuliani: 11%
Ron Paul: 3%

Two Republican Michigan Polls

One from Strategic Vision, the other from Rossman Group.

Strategic Vision (1/04-1/06)

John McCain: 29%
Mitt Romney: 20%
Mike Huckabee: 18%
Rudy Giuliani: 13%
Ron Paul: 5%
Fred Thompson: 5%

Rossman Group (1/06-1/07)

Mike Huckabee: 23%
Mitt Romney: 22%
John McCain: 18%
Rudy Giuliani: 8%
Fred Thompson: 4%
Ron Paul: 3%

These two polls were taken before the New Hampshire primary and after the Iowa caucus, so I don't think they are very reliable at the moment. If they are true, then it looks like Michigan is looking to be a three-man race and once again, Giuliani is ignored. Either his Florida plan is a success or a complete and utter failure.