Having Internet Problems

Could not come at a better time. I'm having some internet connectivity issues and I'm not sure when it will be fixed.

As a side note, Obama by 14% in North Carolina and a very tight race in Indiana. It may be a double take for Obama. Bad news for Clinton.

Polls Show Wright Fallout

Several polls have been released in the last few days that show some interesting movement away from Barack Obama. It seems that the reemergence of Rev. Wright and possibly Obama's response to Rev. Wright may be turning away some voters. Lets take a look.

Democratic Nomination

Gallup 4/28-30

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Barack Obama: 45%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 9 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 46%
John McCain: 46%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -1 to even, while Obama went from even to -4 points against McCain.

Rasmussen Reports 4/27-30

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton has gained 5 points while Obama has lost 5 points.

Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John McCain: 44%

Since Clinton's win in PA, Clinton went from -6 points to even, while Obama has remained 3 points behind McCain.

North Carolina

Two polls for the North Carolina primary continue to show troubling signs for Obama.

Mason-Dixon 4/28-29

Barack Obama: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 42%

Insider Advantage 4/29

Barack Obama: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 44%

You read that right, Insider Advantage shows Clinton leading Obama by an insignificant 2%. Important note, the internals of the IA poll is horrible, so I would not put much stock into it. However, this poll is a major shift from the previous IA poll, which showed Obama leading by 15%. The internal demographic shares of both polls are almost identical. What has changed is whites have moved to Clinton, while some African-Americans have moved away from Obama. Key note to the poll, it shows only 25% of the respondents are African-Americans. Currently, about 22% of the entire NC population is African-Americans, while the Democratic share is about 35%. So, take this poll with a grain of salt, but keep it in your peripheral view. What is clear and enhanced by the Mason-Dixon poll is North Carolina may not be the Virginia blowout that most expected. Instead, this race could end in the single digits. Key is turnout among African-Americans. I'm not willing to predict anything, but if I had to, I will bet on a double digit Obama win in North Carolina.

Indiana

Rasmussen 4/29

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Barack Obama: 44%

TeleResearch 4/25-29

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Barack Obama: 38%

Once again, the polls show movement toward Clinton and away from Obama. Tuesday night will be very interesting.

RCP Average

National

Barack Obama: 45.1% (-6% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 43.4% (+3.7% since 4/22)

North Carolina

Barack Obama: 48.4% (-2.9% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 41.2% (+5.4% since 4/22)

Indiana

Barack Obama: 43.2% (-0.5% since 4/22)
Hillary Clinton: 48% (+2% since 4/22)

Clinton Up 8 and 9 Points in Indiana

Two new polls out from Indiana show Clinton with a moderate lead in Tuesday's Indiana primary.

Survey USA

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Barack Obama: 43%

Clinton is down from a 16-point advantage in the last Survey USA poll, but up from a 5-point deficit SUSA did for Downs Center. The poll for Downs Center used a different method of gathering data than what is usually used by SUSA.

PPP

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Barack Obama: 42%

Clinton enjoys some internal advantages in Indiana, including the support of Senator and former Governor of Indiana (and possible VP candidate) Evan Bayh. Obama's internal advantages are also matched with a sizable African-American population and Chicago media market that is prevalent in the northern part of the state.

Final PA Scenarios [UPDATE]

As I pointed out earlier, the average of the last polls out of PA comes in at 49% for Clinton and 43% for Obama. The last Zogby poll was released tonight. Removing PPP's poll, which was the only firm to show a lead for Obama in the state and adding Zogby's poll, the new average is 50% for Clinton and 42% for Obama. Now, we move to the undecideds. Here are a few scenarios based on the percentage of undecideds (derived from polls, not exits) that go to Clinton:

Absolute Best Case Scenario (+16% Clinton victory)
100% to Clinton - game changer; Indiana critical
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 42%

Ohio-like Scenario (+12% Clinton victory)
80% to Clinton - Status-quo; Indiana critical
Clinton: 56%
Obama: 44%

Likely Scenario (+11% Clinton victory)
70% to Clinton - Status-quo; Indiana critical
Clinton: 55%
Obama: 44%

Even More Likely Scenario (+10% Clinton victory)
60% to Clinton - Indiana critical; Obama likely nominee
Clinton: 55%
Obama: 45%

Bad Scenario (+8% Clinton victory)
50% to Clinton - Indiana and North Carolina critical; Obama likely nominee
Clinton: 54%
Obama: 46%

Absolute Worse Case Scenario (+7% Clinton victory)
40% to Clinton - Obama is the nominee
Clinton: 53%
Obama: 46%

Of course, these scenarios are dependent on the polls, so take this for what it's worth. It is entirely possible the polls are not picking up last minute sentiment such as what happened in New Hampshire.

[UPDATE]: 12:35 PM

Since new polls were released this morning, I have a new chart and I updated the numbers. Red means the candidate gained ground, while blue means the candidate lost ground from the last poll.

RESULTS: Wisconsin

Obama's Winning Streak Continues

CBS/AP) Barack Obama easily won Tuesday's Democratic primary in Wisconsin, handing Hillary Clinton her ninth straight defeat headed into crucial March 4 contests in Texas and Ohio.




John McCain easily won the Republican contest in Wisconsin, as well as a primary in Washington, putting him ever closer to wrapping up the GOP nomination.



With 91 percent of the Wisconsin vote in, Obama led Clinton, 58 percent to 41 percent. In the Republican contest, McCain held a commanding lead, 55 percent to 37 percent, over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. With just over half the Washington vote in, McCain led Huckabee, 49 percent to 21 percent.



CBS News exit polling of Wisconsin Democratic voters indicated that Obama made significant gains among groups long thought to be loyal to Clinton. Women voters and Catholics were equally split between the two, and Obama led Clinton among those without college degrees by 13 percentage points. He also edged her out among self-identified Democrats, 53 percent to 46 percent, and won 54 percent of the vote from those in households making less than $50,000 a year.



Meanwhile, Obama continued to dominate the groups that have favored him in the past, winning convincing majorities of men (67 percent), college graduates (60 percent) and those in households earning more than $50,000 a year (60 percent).


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/19/politics/main3843911.shtml