LA-6 Special Election

In a stunning victory, Democrat Don Cazayoux defeated Republican Woody Jenkins to replace retired Republican Congressman Richard Baker. Cazayoux won the district 49% to 46%, this despite Republican ads, which tried to tie Cazayoux with Nancy Pelosi, Obama and Rev. Wright.

If anything, this Republican defeat is a sure sign of things to come this November.

The 6th Congressional district has remained Republican since 1975 with about a 7% lean Republican.

Ron Paul Still Around

In this article, it talks about Ron Paul still gaining votes in primaries and mentions two interesting points: will he support McCain or will he run as an Independent?

Two quotations: “I’ll be very cautious about what I do,” he said, noting his effort to encourage his supporters to get involved with their local Republican committee. “If I just endorse somebody from another party and walk away, that probably wouldn’t go over too well.”

And, "But while keeping to the same mantra — “I have no plan, no intention to do so” — Paul is also not completely slamming the door shut on a third-party run. And, perhaps more worrisome for Republicans should they have a tight race with the eventual Democratic nominee, he’s also not ruling out supporting a third-party candidate."

Didn't want to make it seem like the Democrats had the only intriguing campaign.

Clinton, Obama Respond to McCain Health Care

Here are the responses from the Democratic candidates regarding McCain's Healthcare plan.

From Clinton:

John McCain is proposing a radical plan that would mean millions of Americans would lose their job-based coverage: The McCain plan eliminates the policies that hold the employer-based health insurance system together, so while people might have a ‘choice’ of getting such coverage , employers would have no incentive to provide it. This means 158 million Americans with job-based coverage today could be at risk of losing the insurance they have come to depend upon.

While Senator McCain touts the choices his plan offers, people who are older or sicker would actually have no choice under his new proposals. Older Americans or those with pre-existing conditions would be allowed to get only one type of coverage in a high risk GAP pool. That kind of arrangement does more to help insurers than individuals. In addition, high-risk pools fall far short of helping people in need. Virtually all high-risk pools today have waiting lists, high premiums, and scaled-back benefits. The millions of vulnerable Americans who lose employer-based coverage could have to wait months, maybe years, to access the GAP high-risk pools, if they are like the pools that exist today.

To top it off, Senator McCain has offered no straight talk on how he would pay for these initiatives.

From Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan:

At a time when 47 million Americans don't have health care, and millions more are being driven to financial ruin trying to pay their medical bills, John McCain is recycling the same failed policies that didn't work when George Bush first proposed them and won't work now. Instead of taking on the big health insurance companies and requiring them to cover Americans with preexisting conditions, Senator McCain wants to make it easier for them to reject your coverage, drop it, or jack up the price you pay. But the only choice he's offering the American people is a tax break that won't guarantee coverage and doesn’t ensure that health care is affordable for the working families who need it most. Barack Obama has a universal health care plan that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family's premiums by up to $2500 a year.

McCain Targets Healthcare

One of the biggest challenges for McCain is domestic issues. No one doubts McCain's national security credentials, but McCain's performance on the stump has been subpar when it comes to the economy and domestic issues. Now, McCain is trying to address the issue with this new spot on Health Care.

Post PA Polls

Lets take a look at the polls post Pennsylvania.

Number in parentheses are the last poll conducted before Pennsylvania.

Gallup has one of the most prominent movement towards Clinton, yet it look like she has peaked at 47%.

Barack Obama: 47% (50%)
Hillary Clinton: 47% (40%)

Gallup has one of the most stable general election matchup I have seen this season, so I can't do an effective comparison.

Barack Obama: 45% (45%)
John McCain: 45% (45%)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (46%)
John McCain: 44% (45%)

Rasmussen on the other hand does not show much movement.

Barack Obama: 48% (49%)
Hillary Clinton: 42% (41%)

General election matchups show some movement towards Democrats.

Barack Obama: 46% (44%)
John McCain: 46% (47%)

Hillary Clinton: 45% (43%)
John McCain: 47% (49%)

Favorable Ratings

John McCain: 51%/46% (51%/46%)
Barack Obama: 50%/47% (49%/49%)
Hillary Clinton: 43%/55% (47%/51%) NET -12 to -4

Recommended Reading

Here are some items you can read through during your spare time:

The Low Road to Victory, New York Times

The Second Coming of McGovern, NRO

Take These Candidates, Please!, Philadelphia Inquirer

Too Little, Too Late, Dick Morris

Why Obama Won't Win, Theo Caldwell

Why John McCain Can't Win, Bob Beckel

Pennsylvania Primary Results

DEMOCRATIC Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

Hillary Clinton: 55% (WINNER)
Brack Obama: 45%

Popular Vote: Clinton +216,067

REPUBLICAN Primary

Precincts reporting: 99%

John McCain: 73% (WINNER)
Ron Paul: 16%
Mike Huckabee: 11%

Source

Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont the night before

Ohio
Republican Polls

Republican Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 88. Awarded Winner Takes All

Survey USA

Date: 3/1-2
Ohio

Est. MoE = 4.5% [?]

John McCain	58%
Mike Huckabee	29%
Ron Paul	4%
Unsure	4%
Other	5%
Source

Democratic Polls

Democratic Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 161. Awarded Proportionally

Suffolk University

Date: 3/2
Ohio

Added: 3/3/08


Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Hillary Clinton	52%
Barack Obama	40%
Refused	4%
Unsure	4%
Source

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Rhode Island

Republican Polls

Republican Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 20. Awarded Proportionally

American Research Group

Date: 2/20-21
Rhode Island

Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

John McCain	65%
Mike Huckabee	18%
Ron Paul	7%
Unsure	10%
Source

Democratic Polls

Democratic Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 32. Awarded Proportionally

WPRI TV poll conducted by Fleming Associates

Date: 2/24-27
Rhode Island

Added: 3/1/08


Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Hillary Clinton	49%
Barack Obama	40%
Unsure	11%
Source

---

Texas

Republican Polls

Republican Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 140. Awarded Winner Takes All

Survey USA

Date: 3/1-2
Texas

Est. MoE = 4.5% [?]

John McCain	53%
Mike Huckabee	36%
Ron Paul	5%
Unsure	3%
Other	3%
Source

Democratic Polls

Democratic Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 228. Awarded Proportionally

Survey USA

Date: 3/1-2
Texas

Added: 3/4/08


Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Barack Obama	49%
Hillary Clinton	48%
Unsure	2%
Other	2%
Source

---

Vermont

Republican Polls

Republican Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 17. Awarded Winner Takes All

American Research Group

Date: 2/20-21
Vermont

Est. MoE = 3.6% [?]

John McCain	73%
Ron Paul	11%
Mike Huckabee	9%
Unsure	7%
Source

Democratic Polls

Democratic Primary Date: 3/4/08

Delegates At Stake: 23. Awarded Proportionally

Rasmussen Reports

Date: 2/24
Vermont

Added: 2/26/08


Est. MoE = 3.0% [?]

Barack Obama	57%
Hillary Clinton	33%
Unsure	10%
Source